Summer 2006 movie box office: A look ahead to Summer 2007

[Jedi Master Carr]

Since we aren't doing a contest this year, I figure we can still talk about the box office. Summer is upon us and the movie season should be crazy here, IMO are the big movies from May to August

May 5th
Mission Impossible 3

May 12th
Poseidon

May 19th
Da Vinci Code
Over the Hedge

May 26
X-Men: The Last Stand

June 2nd
The Break Up (Jennifer Aniston and Vince Vaughn together)

June 9th
Cars

June 16th
Fast and the Furious 3
Nacho Libre (Jack Black movie)

June 23
Click (Adam Sandler flick)

June 30
Superman Returns

July 7th
Pirates of the Carribbean: Dead Man's Chest

July 14th
You me and Dupree (comedy starring Owen Wilson, Kate Hudson and Matt Dillon)

July 21
Lady in the Water (newest M Night film)

July 28
Miami Vice

August 4th
Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby (will Ferrel Comedy)

August 11th
World Trade Center
Zoom

August 18th
Clerks 2
Snakes on a Plane

Right now top of the summer to me will probably be

1 POTC 2
2 Cars
3 Superman Returns
4 Da Vinci Code
5 X-Men: Last Stand

Da Vinci code is the hard one to predict with the popularity and controversy it could make a lot of money.

[Jaime Tomahawk]

Ther'es precisely three movies even worth thinkign about in that list. Hollywood really cant do better than this?

[Jedi Master Carr]

Originally posted by Jaime Tomahawk
Ther'es precisely three movies even worth thinkign about in that list. Hollywood really cant do better than this?
What three movies are those?

For me I am looking forward to more than 3
X3
POTC 2
Superman Returns
Cars
Lady in the Water
Da Vinci Code

[Ryan Pode]

Four.
X3
POTC 2
Superman Returns
Nacho Libre.

[Figrin D'an]

I plan on seeing X3, Superman Returns and Clerks 2 in the theatre. There's a few others I wouldn't mind seeing, but they can wait for rental. Given how expensive it is now for an evening at the movies (hell, even a matinee), I'm quite a bit more selective in my cinema visits.

[Nathanial K'cansce]

I fear so much for Clerks 2. I just don't see how it will be any good, or be even half the film Clerks was.

[Jaime Tomahawk]

Originally posted by Jedi Master Carr
What three movies are those?

For me I am looking forward to more than 3
X3
POTC 2
Superman Returns
Cars
Lady in the Water
Da Vinci Code


Cars, because it's Pixar and there's a good chance it might be worth the 16 dollars in a theatre.

X-3 as the last two were excellent, deserves support as a result, even if the trailers arent the best

Superman Returns looks to be decent and has Kevin Spacey.

POTC:Dead Man's chest looks to be no where near as good as the first, the trailer is horrid. And Da Vinci code? UGH. No. No No no, the book was god awful, I'm not going to give a scrap of a cent for any continuation of that foulness.

Even with the three I have listed, there are doubts that need to be dispelled. I honestly just can not see one movie that has the look of a must see memorable picture.

[sirdizzy]

hmmm I guess I get to use my new job wisely then. I just started working for my local theatrical chain as the quality control and customer support for the local area. I am also in charge of promotions and going to be house manager for the 3rd biggest theatre in town. So now I get to go to trade screenings, I saw United 93 last thursday and am going to MI3 this thursday.

[Yog]

Right now, I am interested in Da Vinci Code, MI3 and Superman

[JMK]

This is shaping up to be one of the worst summers ever.

Must see:
Superman
X-3

Might get aroudn to seeing if it's a rainy spring / summer:
MI-3
Poseidon
Nacho Libre
POTC2
Clerks 2 - but I'm SO scared that it will suck hard.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

My list is about the same as yours, JMK.

Must see:
X-3
PotC3
Cars
Snakes on a Plane

Kinda want to see:
Superman Returns
Poseidon
MI-3
Nacho Libre
Lady in the Water

Ok, it's not really like your list at all. :mneh

[JMK]

Well we have the same 6 movies that we'd like to see. You're just more forgiving or lenient than I am. ;)

[Lilaena De'Ville]

It's my only flaw.

:lol

[Droo]

Must see:
Superman Returns
X-Men 3
Pirates of the Caribbean 2

Will see:
A Scanner Darkly
Sin City 2

Might see:
The Da Vinci Code
Poseidon

[Lilaena De'Ville]

Ahh I forgot A Scanner Darkly!

And Sin City 2 is coming out this summer?

[Droo]

In August, apparently.

[JMK]

Well I'll have to add that to my list too. Still it looks like 2006 is going to be paltry compared to the amount of money I spent in theaters in 04-05.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

There are a few more movies I *want* to see, I just dont' know that I'll be able to.

The Break Up
You, Me, and Dupree
Click

...mostly chick flicks :o

I hope The Fast and The Furious 3 tanks.

[Figrin D'an]

Originally posted by Nathanial K'cansce
I fear so much for Clerks 2. I just don't see how it will be any good, or be even half the film Clerks was.



Originally posted by JMK
Clerks 2 - but I'm SO scared that it will suck hard.



Believe me, I share the same concerns. My desire to see it is almost akin to morbid curiosity than anything (ie. let's see just how bad this really will be). I would very much like it to be as great as the original, but I'm not getting my hopes up.


I do agree that this summer looks ridiculously weak. Unless Superman Returns turns out to be horrible, I tend to think it'll take the summer box office crown. I'm personally looking forward to X3 more than anything else to released between now and September.

[JMK]

I actually think that either X-3 or PotC2 will take the box office crown this summer, possibly for the whole year.

[Fiona Devlin]

yo ho, yo ho, it's pirates 2 for me! ;)

[Lilaena De'Ville]

Over the Hedge and Monster House should be added to that list. :) I don't know that they'll contend with Cars, but they are family friendly fare of an animated sort, and those tend to be big in the summer.

[Shawn]

I actually thought the trailer for the Fast and the Furious 3 looked slightly more interesting than the first 2. If it was on HBO, I would tune into it for the 20 minutes or so it'd take me to realize that it's still unwatchable.

X-Men 3 is probably the only movie I'm going to see for the remainder of the year. Although I'm pretty tempted to go see Snakes on a Plane just to support it.

[Jedi Master Carr]

POTC will be #1, I think it will make 320-350 in the U.S. Actually I think this summer will have a bigger box office than last summer. I base this off what I have been reading on different sites. Also May opens a lot better. Last May it was terrible the first couple of weeks until Star Wars opened. This year you have MI3, Poseidon, Da Vinci Code, and Over the Hedge. All four of them should make over 100 million and I think Da Vinci and MI3 will top over 200.

[JMK]

I don't know if MI3 will get to 200 million. I haven't followed box office trends for a couple years now outside of RotS, but I have to believe that Tom Cruise's antics over the past couple years have made people a little hesistant to drop down $8 to see his stuff.
Either that, or it's raised the interest in his work.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

Philip Seymour Hoffman might draw some different viewers, however.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well teens don't really pay attention to that kind of stuff. I think it being a big budget escapist action movie will get a lot of young people to the theaters. I don't think it will do much below barely making 200 though.

[jjwr]

I wouldn't be suprised to see Superman take #1, everyone knows who Superman is and if the initial reviews are good it could get great repeat business.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

I know teens don't pay attention to that sort of stuff, that's why I said he might bring in some different viewers.

http://movies.msn.com/Movies/movie.aspx?m=543511&stab=1 Word of mouth, on MSN, seems to be good.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Originally posted by Lilaena De'Ville
I know teens don't pay attention to that sort of stuff, that's why I said he might bring in some different viewers.

http://movies.msn.com/Movies/movie.aspx?m=543511&stab=1 Word of mouth, on MSN, seems to be good.

Oh I wasn't refering to what you said, I guess it looked like I was. I was refering to the Cruise bit, with him acting crazy. I don't think the average teenage boy pay attention to that stuff. Having Hoffman in it could give it some different viewers though.
It is also getting good reviews it is at 74% on Rotten Tomatoes.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

J J Abrams is THE MAN.

It's apparently driven by the characters rather than jumping from one explosion to another, so I have high hopes and I'll probably see it this weekend.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Anybody wants to make predictions for this weekend? Since there is no contest we can do that for the top five or whatever you want.
Here is my guess
1 MI3 67.678
2 RV 10.342
3 Hoot 8.324
4 United 93 7.101
5 American Haunting 5.834
Also have to coniser Stick it and Silent Hill which both should be close to the top 5.

[CMJ]

Everything underperformed yesterday. o_O

[Jedi Master Carr]

Yeah I saw that, I was shocked, could have Cinqo De Mayo played a role? I know a lot of people get drunk that day (mainly college kids) Still this beats last year which was horrible. Kingdom of Heaven only made 20 million that is the worse start to summer that I could remember.

[sirdizzy]

We did midnight movies last night and didn't even have to open our second theatre because we couldn't sell out the first one. None of the sets sold out because when we got down to the last few front rows people wouldn't buy tickets for them not wanting to sit so close.

[sirdizzy]

if I am allowed to wait tell satruday morningto pick I might have a unfair advantage, I could have told you Hoot was going to fail miserably as we sold more tickets for Silent Hill which is been out a few weeks. I was shocked how well RV held up, we sold out our 7oclock set even though we were having trouble with the AC in that theatre and it was hot as heck in there.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Originally posted by sirdizzy
if I am allowed to wait tell satruday morningto pick I might have a unfair advantage, I could have told you Hoot was going to fail miserably as we sold more tickets for Silent Hill which is been out a few weeks. I was shocked how well RV held up, we sold out our 7oclock set even though we were having trouble with the AC in that theatre and it was hot as heck in there.

Not doing a contest really. The problem is less and less people were participating. Just not enough interest. Last year towards the end it was just me, CMJ and Yoghurt doing it. You can go ahead and make your picks here and we will see who is better. I though sure sucked last week. Man MI3 made almost 20 million less than I guessed. I am not sure if it was because it is has been so long since the last Mission Impossible film or the Cruise crazy act or bad marketing (the TV spots really sucked, IMO) or some combination of all three. I think this doesn't mean anything for the summer back in 2004, Van Helsing had a poor debut and the box office went crazy starting with Shrek 2.

Honestly the weekend of May 19th is going to be nuts. Da Vinci Code and Over The Hedge will be huge. I think Da Vinci will make a lot because of the popularity of the book along with the controversy. I think it will debut between 75-90 million and Over the Hedge being a family movie could make 40-50 million, IMO.

[sirdizzy]

I was still banned or I would have participated last summer.

[CMJ]

Four people is still not enough for a contest though.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Yeah, four wouldn't be enough. Still, we did it for like 5 years and a couple of times during the winter. I say it was fun while it lasted. It was just hard for people to do it every week, I think that is what hurt at the end, especially when we lost the other two die hards (Marcus and Reaper).

[Jaime Tomahawk]

Excuse me, I'm still about :-p

[Jedi Master Carr]

Originally posted by Jaime Tomahawk
Excuse me, I'm still about :-p


Heh well at the time you weren't playing, which I guess is what I meant. I understand though, it is tough to do every week. And I don't think there was ever enough motivation for people to want to continue to do it.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Finally a good weekend

1. DA VINCI CODE SONY 3,735 30,134,000 8,068 n/a 30,134,000
2. OVER THE HEDGE 20TH CENTURY FOX 4,059 11,128,000 2,742 n/a 11,128,000
3. MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE 3 - MI3 PARAMOUNT 3,450 3,420,000 991 n/a 93,921,000
4. POSEIDON WARNER BROS. 3,555 2,986,000 840 n/a 29,381,000
5. SEE NO EVIL LIONS GATE 1,257 1,653,000 1,315 n/a 1,653,000
6. RV SONY 2,925 1,350,000 462 n/a 46,163,000
7. JUST MY LUCK 20TH CENTURY FOX 2,543 1,121,000 441 n/a 7,902,000
8. AMERICAN HAUNTING, AN FREESTYLE 1,265 543,000 429 n/a 12,222,000
9. UNITED 93 UNIVERSAL 1,306 430,000 329 n/a 26,983,000
10. STICK IT BUENA VISTA 1,100 300,000 273 n/a 22,996,000

Da Vinci should do 85-95 million. Not sure what the legs will be like considering the reviews although maybe the audiences are liking it better than the critics. Should still clear 200 million easily. OTH did less than I expected I was thinking 45-47 for the weekend but it looks like 40-44 right now. Still Solid, I bet it does 160-190.

[Nathanial K'cansce]

Over the Hedge had to have been one of the funniest movies I've seen in years. Absolutely fantastic.

[sirdizzy]

Da Vinci sold out almost city wide for every show at my theatres, and for the most part the crowd reaction I saw when the movie got out was pretty favorable

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think Da Vinci will do around 85 million. Now next weekend will be a monster weekend, with X3 coming out. I think that will destroy the Memorial day weekend record.

[sirdizzy]

depends on how well da vinci holds up, kids movies like over the hedge always hold up pretty well on memorial day weekend so it shouldn't see too much of a drop but how much will da vinci lose %50-55 most likely

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think Da Vinci will drop about 50% for the three day period. It could make 50 though for the 4 day holiday. I think X3 will explode on the screen probably make 110-120 for the 4 day weekend.

[sirdizzy]

I am wondering if X3 has that much in it though, I have been hearing a lot of bad press and fans not being too pumped about it. The movie has got a solid 90 for 4 days in it now doubt, we've even presold a handful of tickets. I am thinking maybe 100-105 tops.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think it will still do 110 at least, it should 90 at the very worse for the three day.

[sirdizzy]

I was probably wrong about x-men man was that movie busy last night, we were swamped all night. And Da Vinci sold only 8 tickets less for the 8oclock last night then it did last friday so maybe that will hold well as well.

[Rutabaga]

I knew X3 would do well, but I was shocked when I saw the $44 million estimate for yesterday. Wow.

I'll be seeing it tomorrow with my mum, hopefully we'll have a good time :).

[Jedi Master Carr]

Yeah that is unbelievable. I thought it would do 36-38 and then go on and do 110-115 for the 4 day. It looks like it will make closer to 120 for the 3 day. Spiderman's record might at last fall.

[sirdizzy]

nope probably not becauce it only managed 31 million on saturday

[Jedi Master Carr]

Originally posted by sirdizzy
nope probably not becauce it only managed 31 million on saturday

Well the studio estimates are at 107, I think it might be a little off maybe 105. I never expected above 100 for the 3 day I was thinking 95 or so. It will do 125, now IMO and will go on to make 250-260 which is great for it.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

WEEKEND ESTIMATES
1. X-Men: The Last Stand $120,125,000
2. The Da Vinci Code $43,000,000
3. Over the Hedge $35,342,000

http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=2078&p=.htm

Twentieth Century Fox's third entry in the Marvel Comics franchise drew a colossal $103.1 million from Friday to Sunday, ranking as the fourth highest-grossing weekend ever. Its $45.5 million opening day, which included $5.9 million from midnight screenings, marked the second-biggest single day, behind Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith's $50 million.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Weekend Actuals are here
1X-Men The Last Stand $122,861,157
2 Da Vinci Code $42,437,372
3 Over the Hedge $35,322,115

X3 was underestimated by 2 million that is a good thing :)

[Jedi Master Carr]

Here are the estimates for Friday
http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2006-06-30&p=.htm

Superman is at 48 million right now. The good news is it is above Batman Begins which had about 39 million at this point. But the bad news is Superman cost probably 100-150 more than BB. I think it will pass 200 probably make 215 at the most (It all depends on how much POTC 2 hurts it). It is going to need to be a big hit overseas to break even for WB at this point.

[Ryan Pode]

I'd say give it time, let the older crowd make it to the theater. But with the cost of movie tickets, the older crowd just doesn't go to the movies anymore.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well it has the next three days to 4th July. Have to see what happens.

[sirdizzy]

superman cost almost 400 million if you take in account all the stops and restarts, like they paid Nic Cage 25 million to play the part back in 1998 plus they had to pay another 25 million to Brett Ratner just 2 years ago when they ditched him for Singer. This movie had like 4 start and stops with preproduction costs twice.

You ever want to hear a funny telling of the problems superman had, watch an evening with kevin smith about his expierence as the screen writer of the movie in 1997.

[Ryan Pode]

I remember in my June issue of Cinnescape in 1996 (maybe 1997, either way I was like 8 or 9), talking about Superman Returns. It's sad I've been waiting a decade for this movie, more than half my life.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well the estimates are up
http://boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/
52 million isn't bad, it is about what Batman made (actually I think Batman Begins made like 49 million or something). If it has BB's legs it could get to like 215 or so. If it can pull in 300-400 million overseas it could break even. I think WB wil just have to look at a lot of those costs as lost money. Really they screwed up three times from Burton to Abrams to Ratner. If it can pull in 550-600 I think they will make a sequel.

[sirdizzy]

Have any of you seen how many wide releases that could be pretty good movies are being crammed into a few weeks for the rest of the summer.

Look at June 21st, Clerks II, Monster House, Lady in Water and My Super Ex-Girlfriend.

While in the next 2 weeks there is one good movie Pirates 2, I hope nobody actually wants to see Little Man or You, Me and Dupree on the 14th.

Are movies that afraid of Pirates that they will overload a weekend to just avoid it by a couple of weeks. All that contended with Superman last week was th Devil Wears Prada, X-men enjoyed a competition free weekend as well.

theres 3 more wide releases on the 28th and 5 on the 4th of August.

I like weekends where this 2 movies to see not just one and I hate when there is 4 or 5 becuase I want to see everything that comes out on the 21st so now I have to pick and choose.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think You me and Durpee looks very funny. Has the potential to be another Something About Mary or Wedding Crashers. Neither film was talked about before they opened. But with that the end of July looks crowded Lady in Water and Super Exgirlfriend and You me and Dupree those are three big films.

[sirdizzy]

Owen Wilson isn't funny, he might have been amusing at one time but he has never been funny.

The reason Mary worked was because Ben Stiller was something of an unknown and while we no realize he is also not funny he was amusing at that time.

You, me an Depree may have worked five years ago before wilson's amusement wore off but not now as he is not even amusing anymore.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well a lot of people liked him in Wedding Crashers, so I guess we will have to wait and see.

[sirdizzy]

The Big Bounce, Around the World in 80 Days, Zoolander, Starsky and Hutch, Shanghai Knights need I say more

[Jedi Master Carr]

Strasky and Hutch was a hit actually it made like a 100 million, if you call it a good movie that is up to you. He was hardly in Around the World in 80 days that was a cameo. And the other movies are hardly his fault they were horrible scripts. Morgan Freeman was in Big Bounce so he msut be an awful actor then if that was the cae.

[Jedi Master Carr]

POTC 2 opens tomorrow, so how big is this going to open? There are some people out there who thinks it can challenge spiderman's weekend. That weekend record is bound to fall here one of these days so can POTC2 be the one to do it? I think it will. I predict it makes 119 breaking it by 5 million.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

Shanghai Noon and Knights are so funny! I love Owen Wilson. There's no way you can't call him a great comedic actor. The Royal Tenenbaums, Life Aquatic, etc etc - he's been in so many good movies. :)

[sirdizzy]

I left royal tenembaums and life aquatic off for a reason but in my opinion they should go right up there with his craptasitic performances. the reason I left them off is because they were off humor performances and while I hated them to no end, a lot of people like that off humor.

Notice I said Shanhai Knights not Noon, he was funny in Noon he was idiotoc in Knights.

[sirdizzy]

we sold out for the midnight for Pirates 2 at 3pm today, its funny people were complaining they couldn't get tickets at like 5pm but the darn things had been on sale for 2 weeks

I saw it last night and loved it

my review
http://www.sirdizzy.org/reviews/pirates2.html

[Yog]

I dont think it will break any records. The trend this summer is, the blockbusters tend to be performing slightly below expected. Thats not to say it will not perform great or anything, just not spiderman type numbers.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Originally posted by Master Yoghurt
I dont think it will break any records. The trend this summer is, the blockbusters tend to be performing slightly below expected. Thats not to say it will not perform great or anything, just not spiderman type numbers.

I disagree X3 actually went above expectations. Nobody on any of the box office sites thought it was going to make 120 for the 4 days. Also I disagree with you I have a feeling it will break a lot of records based on what I saw at the theater today when I got my tickets. I see it tonight at 7:45.

[Yog]

What made Spiderman really great though, it not only had a phenomenal opening, it went on to make 400M. This year, blockbusters are struggling to make 200M, and then fizzle out quickly after making that. I don't see a single movie the whole year having a shot at 300M mark, including POTC 2. In the end, opening don't mean that much, its the final gross that determines a movie's success.

X:3 had an amazing opening, but it was disheartening to see it drop so fast. And for every X:3 going above expectations, there is a Da Vinci Code or Superman Returns.

I expect the same pattern with POTC 2. Open big (although no records broken), then fizzle out at 200-250M range.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I don't think that will be the case. I saw it tonight and it was sold out and the audience loved. The thing about POTC is that it attracts families, teenagers and adults. It has all the indgredients to be a blockbuster.

[sirdizzy]

i think it can take a shot at spidey because man was that movie sold out, city wide all day

it was funny it was like 7:40 and the show started at 7:30 and these two kids come up and their like "you mean pirates is sold out" ten minutes late and surprised pirates is sold out my reponse was "yea we sold out like 4 hours ago." Which is good for my theatre because we are the #3 theatre in town so everyone hits the bigger and newer theatres first then us (they also got 2 prints for their theatres, I only got 1).

We sold out all 4 of our pirate shows today and we hadn't sold out a single movie before that in my 3 month stint as house manager.


So I know its not much to judge by but of our 5 prints, we sold out every single show for a total of 23 sold out shows (average seat capacity is 220, average ticket price is $5.50).

[Yog]

Well, if its get that many sell outs as Dizzy says, maybe you're right Carr. Maybe it can break a whole bunch of records. Part of the reason I get so sceptic, the posters at box office mojo have a chronical habbit of getting ahead of themselves. They would be like "oh, superman is a lock for 400!" etc, then when the real numbers roll in, reality bites them. I have seen this happen a lot over the years.

Also keep in mind, Spiderman was totally sold out the whole weekend in most theaters. You could basically go to the box office and ask for a ticket on friday, and all the shows would be sold out for the 3 day frame for most if not all the theaters in the area. I remember someone commented they had to wait until tuesday before they found a single ticket. It was not just the opening day. Even if it breaks opening day record, its going to need to show some consistancy.

There is nothing I would like more than spiderman's record to fall, I guess were going to see what happens in a few hours when the estimates roll in :)

[Yog]

Here is a list of sellouts for the 3 days at Lees movie info.. if this report is accurate and representative, then wow

http://www.leesmovieinfo.net/Crowd-Reports.php


Crowd Reports for Sunday, Jul. 9

Pirates of Caribbean 2 8:30PM 100% of 400 4 NCG Eastwood Cinema bgniewek
Pirates of Caribbean 2 8:00PM 100% of 1000 1 Pacific El Capitan Lee Tistaert
Superman Returns 6:55PM 100% of 300 1 Blockbuster IMAX Anonymous
Pirates of Caribbean 2 5:20PM 100% of 400 4 NCG Eastwood Cinema bgniewek
Pirates of Caribbean 2 4:45PM 100% of 400 4 NCG Eastwood Cinema bgniewek
Pirates of Caribbean 2 4:40PM 100% of 1000 1 Pacific El Capitan Lee Tistaert
Superman Returns 3:50PM 100% of 300 1 Blockbuster IMAX Anonymous
Pirates of Caribbean 2 2:10PM 100% of 350 4 NCG Eastwood Cinema bgniewek
Pirates of Caribbean 2 1:35PM 100% of 400 4 NCG Eastwood Cinema bgniewek
Pirates of Caribbean 2 1:20PM 100% of 1000 1 Pacific El Capitan Lee Tistaert
Superman Returns 12:00PM 100% of 300 1 Blockbuster IMAX Anonymous
Superman Returns 12:00PM 100% of 300 1 Blockbuster IMAX Anonymous
Pirates of Caribbean 2 11:15AM 100% of 400 4 NCG Eastwood Cinema bgniewek

Crowd Reports for Saturday, Jul. 8

Pirates of Caribbean 2 11:20PM 100% of 1000 1 Pacific El Capitan Lee Tistaert
Superman Returns 10:05PM 100% of 300 1 Blockbuster IMAX Anonymous
Pirates of Caribbean 2 9:55PM 100% of 72 5 Muvico Palace 20 Anonymous
Pirates of Caribbean 2 9:50PM 100% of 250 1 Promenade Cinema 14 Anonymous
Pirates of Caribbean 2 8:00PM 100% of 1000 1 Pacific El Capitan Lee Tistaert
Pirates of Caribbean 2 7:35PM 100% of 72 5 Muvico Palace 20 Anonymous
Superman Returns 7:00PM 100% of 300 1 Blockbuster IMAX Anonymous
Pirates of Caribbean 2 6:35PM 100% of 72 5 Muvico Palace 20 Anonymous
Pirates of Caribbean 2 4:40PM 100% of 1000 1 Pacific El Capitan Lee Tistaert
Superman Returns 3:55PM 100% of 300 1 Blockbuster IMAX Anonymous
Pirates of Caribbean 2 1:20PM 100% of 1000 1 Pacific El Capitan Lee Tistaert
Superman Returns 10:00AM 100% of 300 1 Blockbuster IMAX Anonymous

Crowd Reports for Friday, Jul. 7

Pirates of Caribbean 2 11:40PM 100% of 300 3 AMC Century City 14 Lee Tistaert
Pirates of Caribbean 2 11:30PM 100% of 400 4 NCG Eastwood Cinema bgniewek
Pirates of Caribbean 2 11:20PM 100% of 1000 1 Pacific El Capitan Lee Tistaert
Pirates of Caribbean 2 11:15PM 100% of 350 3 AMC Santa Monica 7 Lee Tistaert
Pirates of Caribbean 2 11:15PM 100% of 215 2 Regal Park Place Stadium ... moviegod102
Pirates of Caribbean 2 10:55PM 100% of 450 4 NCG Eastwood Cinema bgniewek
Pirates of Caribbean 2 10:45PM 100% of 350 3 AMC Century City 14 Lee Tistaert
Pirates of Caribbean 2 10:45PM 100% of 215 Regal Park Place Stadium ... moviegod102
Pirates of Caribbean 2 10:45PM 100% of 200 4 The Bridge:cinema de lux Lee Tistaert
Pirates of Caribbean 2 10:30PM 100% of 420 3 AMC Santa Monica 7 Lee Tistaert
Pirates of Caribbean 2 10:30PM 100% of 400 1 Landmark Regent Theatre Lee Tistaert
Pirates of Caribbean 2 10:20PM 100% of 72 5 Muvico Palace 20 Anonymous
Pirates of Caribbean 2 10:15PM 100% of 215 Regal Park Place Stadium ... moviegod102
Pirates of Caribbean 2 10:05PM 100% of 400 Muvico Baywalk 20 moviegod102
Pirates of Caribbean 2 10:05PM 100% of 400 4 NCG Eastwood Cinema bgniewek
Pirates of Caribbean 2 9:55PM 100% of 300 3 AMC Century City 14 Lee Tistaert
Pirates of Caribbean 2 9:50PM 100% of 250 1 Promenade Cinema 14 Anonymous
Pirates of Caribbean 2 9:50PM 0% of 0 1 Promenade Cinema 14 Anonymous
Pirates of Caribbean 2 9:35PM 100% of 400 Muvico Baywalk 20 moviegod102
Pirates of Caribbean 2 9:35PM 100% of 350 Muvico Baywalk 20 moviegod102
Pirates of Caribbean 2 9:15PM 100% of 350 4 NCG Eastwood Cinema bgniewek
Pirates of Caribbean 2 9:00PM 100% of 285 3 AMC Santa Monica 7 Lee Tistaert
Pirates of Caribbean 2 8:45PM 100% of 72 5 Muvico Palace 20 Anonymous
Pirates of Caribbean 2 8:40PM 100% of 350 Muvico Baywalk 20 moviegod102
Pirates of Caribbean 2 8:30PM 100% of 350 4 NCG Eastwood Cinema bgniewek

[Lilaena De'Ville]

The two theatres closest to my house were sold out nearly all shows. I actually had to use Fandango to secure my tickets to the 9:45 pm showing at one of them.

[Jedi Master Carr]

There is talk one some box office forums that POTC 2 made 55 million yesterday. We will see if that will be the correct number, if it is ROTS opening Day gross is history and Spiderman's weekend gross will quickly follow.

[Rutabaga]

I just saw the $55 million estimate...wow. Perhaps it's a good thing that my family can't go see it this weekend, due to my father's other obligations as a museum docent. We'll be going next weekend, but maybe I'll still need to buy tickets ahead of time, just in case.

I've gotta tell you, my one disappointment at looking at the summer box office so far is that I think X-Men: The Last Stand is going to end up out-grossing Superman Returns. Overall, I enjoyed The Last Stand, although it had some major icky flaws. But there's no competition in quality, Superman Returns is the much superior movie. Perhaps this is one time I can pull out the old running time chestnut, since Superman Returns is nearly an hour longer than The Last Stand?

It just ain't right, though. :\

[Yog]

Impressive opening day to say the least. Good position to take the 3 day record now.

[sirdizzy]

I am telling you we should have played the blockbuster game this summer, I would have done fantastic

I knew supermans numbers weren't going to be that hot, we sold only about 100 tickets at best for any show (we sold 150 for da vinci and x-men, I only sold 66 superman tickets for the 8pm last night) and I sold 210 tickets for pirates yesterday and I could have easlily sold more with people willing to sit on the floors to see it.

I was preselling ticktets to every show for every show time this weekend ( I presold maybe 100 tickets for the rest of the weekend yesterday alone). Keep in mind we are the #3 theatre and if we are this busy then the other two theatre you can't even get near this weekend. They were sold out for every show, every showtime yesterday by 3pm. there wasn't a single ticket to be had for a friday show anywhere in town even before we started the 4pm matinees.


I loved seeing little kids in pirates outfits and even gave em some of our gold coins (plastic of course) from our display. Although the funniest thing I have seen was like 5 kids in nacho libre masks for when that movie came out.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Amazing numbers reallly
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2006-07-07&p=.htm

I think it will do 130 at least but could go as high as 140 million. As for Superman Returns well it will top 200, probably barely maybe make 210 at the most. It is going to be less than X3 because of several reasons a) opening, X3 had memorial weekend almost to itself (except Da Vinci) SR had end of June and then had to face off against the biggest movie of the year.
b) like Batman had a wait after a very terrible movie (in Superman's case two terrible movies), c) an unknown playing Superman. In the end the gross isn't bad the problem is the movie cost too much to make. Hopefully they can lower the cost for a sequel.

[Rutabaga]

The good news is, Superman Returns will do very well on DVD, there's no doubt about it. And I think the cost of a sequel will automatically be lower because there was the whole uniqueness of the costs of this first one, which does include money to people like Nicolas Cage and lots of other people involved in the first aborted attempts at making a new Superman movie.

*sigh*

Maybe Superman is too much of a good guy for some people nowadays, maybe that's part of the explanation too.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well Batman Begins only did 206 million. I think it has more to do with the bad baggage of the previous movies, in both cases. People don't want to sit through a bad movie again.

[Jedieb]

Originally posted by Jedi Master Carr
Well Batman Begins only did 206 million. I think it has more to do with the bad baggage of the previous movies, in both cases. People don't want to sit through a bad movie again.

Both BB and SR had a tough job, restarting well known franchises. I think they were both successful. I expect both sequels to outgross the originals by $50-$100 and we should see 3-4 good sequels from these two series.

It looks like Pirates is going to have a monster opening. I don't know when I'll get around to seeing it, but I'll probably take the boy one afternoon. He's been begging me to take him to SR for a 3rd time, but 2 is enough.
"But Dad, we saw ROTS six times!" :cool

[Rutabaga]

Wow...Box Office Mojo's estimate for the weekend is $132 million for POTC. It didn't just break Spider-Man's record, it shattered it. Holy smokes. Definitely going to be the biggest movie of the summer. Johnny Depp finally became a true A-list star after the first one, but I think after this weekend, he's probably become one of the most bankable and powerful stars in Hollywood right now. Take that, Tom Cruise :p.

Superman Returns fell almost 60%, darn it. But hopefully it will still limp through to $200 million. $200 million ain't nothin' to sneeze at, but people will still proclaim it a major disappointment or a bomb. I loved it, though, and that's all that matters :).

[Ryan Pode]

$132 is amazing.

[sirdizzy]

no 100 million in just two day is amazing. 100 million dollars used to be the benchmark for a successful film, I think you need to almost raise that bar to 150 or even 200 nowdays. 100 is fairly easy to get and the fact that a movie can now do it in 2 days is mind boggling.

[Mitch]

Well, when six years ago, full-price tickets at my local mega-plex were $5.50, and now they're $10.00, of course it's easier to get to 100 million.

I wish there was a way to gague how many tickets were sold instead of just how much money a film made off of inflated ticket prices.

[sirdizzy]

thats why I love my town, six years ago full price tickets were $6.00, today they are $6.50.

We get people from california all the time amazed at how low the prices are, I always get the wow we pay like $10-12 in cali.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

Between 4 and 6 we can get into the best theatre near us for only $5.50. :love

[Rutabaga]

We always go to bargain matinees on Sundays here in my town, and it's only $6.50 for me and $6.00 for my parents since they're seniors. And it's only gone up like 50 cents or a dollar in the 13 years or so that that theater complex has been open. So that's pretty darn cheap, all things considered :).

[Yog]

With this terrific opening, 300M should be well within reach. Good to see its not the end of mega blockbusters quite yet :)


Between 4 and 6 we can get into the best theatre near us for only $5.50

I hate you all >_<

[Jedi Master Carr]

Amazing numbers this will be the #1 movie of the year, easily. It has a chance at 400.

[sirdizzy]

between 11am and 6pm you can get into any theatre in town for $4.50 any day of the week. We also have discount tuesdays were you can go anytime all day tuesday for $4.50 (exluding movies their first week of release but hey Superman Returns at 8pm will be $4.50 on tuesday).

I think that beats the discount sundays, best theatre in town (its only 1 year old) for $4.50 before 6pm, I feel lucky then again I haven't paid to see a movie in more than 6 months, and I normally see them 2 days before they are released (I saw Pirates last wednesday)

[Ryan Pode]

WOW. Eight Dollars for a student/matinee price. Nine dollars full on. Curse you Northern Virginia housing boom!

[Jedi Master Carr]

Its 6.50 for a matinee here and 8 bucks at night.

[jjwr]

I'm not all that suprised at the opening considered it opened on a Friday. For a year now a numbers of movies have come close opening during the week and deflating their weekend numbers but this one avoided the allure of it.

No doubt RoTS would have broken the record had it opened on a Friday last year.

[Jedi Master Carr]

ROTS and Spiderman 2 both would have beaten it if they had opened on a Friday. I think Spiderman 3 has a chance to top it next may.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

My husband heard on the radio that PotC2 made 135 million over the weekend, but I don't know who from. ^_^;

[Sorsha Kasajian]

For a $6.50 matinee ticket, you should get a free popcorn, not frelling TV commercials. :verymad

I can watch those at home.:x

- end of rant -

[Jedieb]

I know I read somewhere that POTC just barely beat the number of tickets that Spidey sold. Everything is skewed now because of wider releases and inflation. mojo had a great chart on record openings that goes all the way back to Jaws. It even includes the theater count so you can see just when things really started to get out of hand.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/pastrecords.htm

2006 POTC $132M 4,133 theaters
1975 Jaws $7M 403 theaters

My, how times have changed.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Theater count has a lot to do with things, plus people rush out to movies more now so combine that and you get movies that are more front loaded.

[jjwr]

Very front loaded, this will still hold on for $300+ but I would be very suprised for it to hit 400M.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think it could hit 400. It will depend on a lot of things. If it does hit 400, it will barely, ala Spiderman.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Pirates will hit 400. It is at like 395 right now. What is more shocking to me is how it is doing overseas it is at 860 WW which is amazing, it has a small chance at 1 billion, which to me is unbelievable. I never thought it would do that well overseas. I actually think it will end up around 950. It has opened everwhere and with summer about over it will drop harsh overseas like it has in the U.S the last couple of weeks.
Also the last remaining big film of the summer is here. Snakes on the Plane is pretty much it. Ricky Bobby should be the last 100 million film, because I don't think Snakes can do that. I think it will open around 25-35 million and finish anywhere from 60-80 depending on WOM and legs. Nothing else is really coming out that will even do that well, the next couple of weeks. I am looking forward to the Illusionist but that has been pushed a little back I think.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

I think Snakes will hit 100 mil no problem.

And I'm 'meh' about the Illusionist, I'm saving my money for The Prestige when it comes out. :D

[Jedi Master Carr]

Originally posted by Lilaena De'Ville
I think Snakes will hit 100 mil no problem.

And I'm 'meh' about the Illusionist, I'm saving my money for The Prestige when it comes out. :D
I do think the Prestige will be better. Also I think the R rated will hurt Snakes. I don't think it can do 100, around 80 is the best it will do, IMO. Still that is a huge success the film only cost like 30 or 40 million to make.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well Snakes on the Plane disapointed, only opening to 15 million, the best case scenerio for it now is 50 overall, which would be okay considering the budget. The rest of the summer is really nothing special. Just Invicibile with Mark Walhberg and The Wicker Man neither I suspect will be huge. Invicible could be a sleeper hit. Finally this summer did beat last year although barely, thanks in large part to Pirates of the Carribean. However, next summer looks to be huge. I will comment about it a little bit and take a look at the big movies coming out in summer 2007.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Since this summer is over I wanted to look ahead to next summer which could be the biggest summer ever. Here is a look at it.
May 4th Spiderman 3
May 11th 28 Days later (sequel to 28 days)
May 18th Shrek the third
May 25th Pirates of the Carribean At Worlds End
June 8th Oceans 13
June 15th Fantastic 4 2
June 22 Evan Almighty
June 29th Live Free or Die Hard (or Die Hard 4)
June 29th Ratatouille (pixar's next film)
July 4th The Transformers
July 13th Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
July 27th The Simpsons
August 3rd The Bourne Ultimatum
August 10th Rush Hour 3

Now ther are mostly sequels on that list probably the most sequels I have seen in one summer, but they are big sequels.
Spiderman 3, Shrek the 3rd and POTC 3 should all make between 350-400. Harry Potter 5 should do 250-300. The next big movie I think will be the Bourne Ultimatium which could make 250, IMO. I really think this will be the biggest summer of all time.

[JMK]

Agreed. That's a staggering list.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Agreed. That's a staggering list.

I know especially May. May is just unbelievable. Probably three of the biggest franchies in history.

[sirdizzy]

The next Fantastic Four is titled Fantastic Four and the Silver Surfer.

And i'm confused there was already a 28 days later, starring Cillian Murphy in a zombie like world. There also is a 28 days starring sandra bulloch and alcholism addiction. Is this 28 days later a sequel the bulloch or the murphy movie.

[Jedi Master Carr]

The next Fantastic Four is titled Fantastic Four and the Silver Surfer.

And i'm confused there was already a 28 days later, starring Cillian Murphy in a zombie like world. There also is a 28 days starring sandra bulloch and alcholism addiction. Is this 28 days later a sequel the bulloch or the murphy movie.

I think I wrote it wrong, it is 28 weeks later, or something. And yeah that is the title of the FF 2 I just got lazy there :p

[Yog]

I really think this will be the biggest summer of all time.

I agree there. Makes you wonder what was the deal about box office "slump". Really, there never was one. What you have now though, studios are releasing lots of sequels instead of coming up with something new.

[JMK]

Well that's not exactly a new phenomenon. It's just one that's growing in popularity as things like superhero franchises gain more notoriety. Studios are just tapping in to already established fanbases. Saves them a lot of time & money to drum up interest when fans are already banging down doors to get a movie done.

In the case of PotC, it was just something that took everyone by storm and they're going to ride that wave for all its worth. IMO once the comic franchises are exhausted Hollywood is going to have a real problem coming up with something original. Heck, they already do have problems.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Originality is going to be a problem once the spiderman, Harry Potter, POTC, Shrek and Batman series are finished they will have to come up with something new.