Holiday Box Office Harry Potter predicts.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Here we can talk about the Holiday Box office season. You can make predictions or just talk about how movies are doing. Here is the relase schedule for November 4-Jan .

November 4th
Chicken Little (animated Disney Movie)
Jarhead (War Drama based on popular nonfiction book)

November 9th
Get Rich or Die Tryin' (music drama)

November 11th
Zathura (Kiddie sci-fi film)
Derailed (Jennifer Aniston-Clive Owen thriller)
Rent (musical)

November 18th
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (biggest film of the month)
Walk the Line (Johnny Cash biopic)

November 23
Yours, Mine, Ours (Dennis Quaid family comedy)
Ice Harvest (Drama)
In the Mix (crime Drama)
Just Friends (Romantic Comedy)

December 2nd
Aeon Flux (sci-fi action)

December 9th
Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, Witch and the Wardrobe (Fantasy)
Memoirs of a Geisha (Drama)
Brokeback Mountain (western)
Syriana (drama/thriller)

December 14th
King Kong (Peter Jackson version)

December 16th
Family Stone (Romantic Comedy)
The Producers (musical)

December 21st
Fun with Dick and Jane (Jim carrey comedy)

December 23th
Cheaper by the Dozen 2 (Family Comedy/ sequel)
Munich (Spielberg film about the Munich Olympics)

December 25th
Hoodwinked (animated)
Rumor Has it (Jennifer Aniston comedy)
New World (Historical Drama)

[Jedi Master Carr]

Predictions for November

Chicken Little OW 46/ final 157
Jarhead OW 19/ Final 69

Get Rich or Die Tryin OW 10/ Final 38

Zathura OW 31/ Final 101
Derailed OW 16 Final 49
Rent OW 12/ Final 48

Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire OW 97/ Final 274
Walk the Line OW 19/ Final 78

Yours, Mine, Ours OW 41 (5Day)/ Final 111
Ice Harvest OW 15/ Final 52
In the Mix OW 7/ Final 18
Just Friends OW 11 Final 37

[Yog]

Some potential huge releases. I will get back later with some predictions, but one thing is for sure. November and december is going to be a lot better than october..

[Jedi Master Carr]

Oh yeah easily.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Chicken Little opened to 40 million and Jar Head surprised with 28 million. Right now I think Chicken Little will stay #1 with 28 million, Zathura close behind with 25, here is the rest of my top 5
CL 28
Zathura 25
Jarhead 15
Derailed 11
Get Rich or Die Trying 10

[Jedi Master Carr]

Chicken Little has been a surprise it has made over 80 million so far should make 160-180 which is good for a non-pixar film. Now Pottermania is again upon us. And I have been reading early sell out reports from different sites. So far they have been great, second in sell outs to only Revenge of the Sith. I think this could have a huge opening probably second biggest of the year. I am thinking right OD 39 million, OW 96 million. That would fit with the previous film which did 38-94. I am thinking it will open higher in the weekend only because of the holidays coming up actually GOF has that advantage over POA, Thanksgiving will really help it, it should easily get past 250 and I think it will end up in the 270 range. I would love to see it make 300 but I just don't think that is possible. Anybody else have an opinion on its opening?

[CMJ]

I'm not really a big HP fan, but this does seem like it'll be huge. Let's say 95M opening weekend.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Yeah that is what I think it will do above 90 for certain I am think 94-97 right now based on what I have read. Not sure about the legs. I only think they will be better than POA because of Thanksgiving which will save it from a bad drop.

[Yog]

I am anything but a Potter fan. Narnia and LOTR is more to my taste. I do not outright hate the movies, they just dont interest me or excite me. If Goblet of Fire bombs, I could not care less. If Goblet of Fire breaks all records, I could not care less. This may or may not affect my predicting in a good or bad way.

Looking at the other Potter movies, its a downward trend so I think it will do slightly less than Azkaban in total gross. There seems to be less buzz than the previous movies. I am not sure it will make 90M opening weekend. Some Potter fans may be disappointed by the gross.

OD: 32M
OW: 87M
TG: 230M

Edit: Btw, it has to be said, earlier this year, I predicted it would make 270M or so. Im just getting the vibe recently that its going to do less than some might expect. I might be wrong and it goes ahead to make 100M+ 3day with 300M+ total, and I would look silly :p

[Jedi Master Carr]

Actually I think you are wrong heh. I have been looking at the worldofkj something (another box office site) it lists sell outs and it sold out a lot of midnight shows. Some people are thinking it might have made 7-9 million on that. If it did it should make 36-39 easily. Now of course the legs are hard to say, I am thinking it won't make 300, even if it makes over 100 million 3 day it won't Best case scenerio, IMO is a 100-105 OW and a 270-285 total. Worst case I think is your prediction.

[Yog]

I looking at electronic ticket sales right now. Yes, there are crap load of sell outs. They are not ALL sell outs though. I remember how crazy it was when the first Spiderman movie hit. You could not find a single show that did not sell out.

Take a look here for example. At current time of writing (it should be a bit past 2 pm EST), they have not sold out 7 pm and 8 pm yet. Even though lowly zorro manage to sell out for its 5.45 show.

http://www.movietickets.com/house_detail.asp?SearchZip=22306&house_id=7845&house_pos=0&movie_id=0&ShowDate=0

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well they were posting numbers from different cities, plus it looks like theater employees post there from some major markets and posted their numbers look at this thread
http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=13946&start=150
besides I think movies are so oversaturated now that is really not hard to get into movies anymore, its difficult for them to sell out except maybe midnight shows. Plus have to realize most kids are still in school and I think the later matnees and the night shows will be huge. Most families don't buy advanced tickets, not imo.

[Yog]

Youre probably right about the midnight shows, those will really help boosting opening day numbers. Maybe I am underpredicting the opening day. On the other hand, midnight show sell outs are to be expected for a movie of this format. Family movie or not, you know fans of the movies will rush out to see it midnight.

I am not really that interested in the midnight shows though, of course there are sellout there. What I want to see is reports from opening day traffic as the evening sets in.

I took a look at a poll at BOM, who were planning to see GOF opening weekend and compared that to the poll for ROTS.

When will you see 'Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire?'
53.7% Opening Weekend
21.9% Sometime in Theaters
11.4% Never
9.9% On DVD
3.2% On TV

When will you see REVENGE OF THE SITH?
72.1% Opening Weekend/Day
19.6% Sometime in Theaters
3.9% Never
3.8% On DVD
0.7% On TV

Take a look at the difference in numbers for who plans to see it opening weekend. That tells me something about the differences in buzz. But then again, ROTS made a whole lot more.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well it won't make 380 that was a given, I was thinking 270-280 anyway at best. So if it made that much those poll numbers. Of course overseas is where the real money for Potter is, it will be 1 internationally could make at least 500-600 and has a chance of topping Sith as the 1 WW.
I guess we will have to see, I do think there is one wild card, if it can grab a lot of teens it could open big, I mean 100 million big. I have heard some evidence to suggest alot of high school kids are interested in this one, but I guess we will have to see how that works. I noticed a lot of high school kids at the theater I saw it at.

[Jedi Master Carr]

GOF got off to a good start over 36 million for Friday. Since most kids had school Friday I think it will have a great Saturday could have a slight increase (if it had made closer to 40 I would say it wouldn't) Should do about the mid 90s for the weekend probably close to my prediction heh.

[Yog]

Thats a great start, helped a lot by the ~7M from midnight shows, IMO. I doubt it will have an increase on saturday though.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well it might have a small decrease it won't be that big though maybe 5% which would probably get it to about 95 for the opening weekend.

[Yog]

BOM updated the estimates:

Friday: $39,355,000
Saturday: $35,470,000
Sunday: $26,600,000
3-day total: $101,425,000

I give up.. have to admit it: GOF had a terrific opening. Insane numbers really concidering its the 4th movie in not that many years. Potter fans in particular, and to some degree casual movie goers must have run out to see this one. 270M like you said Carr, or even higher, looks more likely now. The good reviews and WOM should keep it going..

I think its safe to conclude, Harry Potter is better suited for november release. It should continue strong into the holidays, even Narnia and King Kong concidered.

Oh, and I really wish the media would stop talking about the 'Box Office' slump..

[Jedi Master Carr]

I am really happy, I am glad those early Friday numbers were wrong for it. I think 270 is a good guess, it will depend on what happens Thanksgiving. I agree with you about November release WB should stop putting them in the summer it is better suited for the holiday season. Also I think what helped this one is a strong teen appeal. The others didn't appeal much to teenagers really, this one had a lot of teen angst (heck it had a ball that is similar to a prom in it) and Radcliff is becoming a teen heartthrobe, plus it had more action and seemed more for adults (no kid stuff) to draw in audiences. I think now it will be the #1 movie WW too I think it will make enough to pass Sith, even though I hate saying that, but the truth is Potter is just more popular overseas.

[Jedi Master Carr]

GOF went up and made a little over 102 million and it beat Spiderman's record for Friday that is amazing in itself.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Harry Potter made about 82 million for the 5 day frame over Thanksgiving
http://boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/
It also makes it to 200 million after 10 days. I am hoping now it makes it to 300, but it is iffy honestly. I think 275 is a lock, but with the monster competition ahead it could fade around 280-290 but heck that would be better than the last two Harry Potter movies. But internationaly it is doing great, early estimates have it at over 400 million already. Should make 850-900 WW and become the #1 movie WW.

[Yog]

It allready shows some signs of decent legs, yeah. But where it really shines is in the international numbers. People are nuts about this movie in Europe. Im going to watch it next weekend with some friends (they allready attended a midnight show). There have been sellouts here all week.

[Atreyu]

Barring a sudden crash in the next week or so, it looks as though HP4 has managed the break the cycle that's plagued the series so far (each subsequent film earning less than the previous one).

On another note, I've heard HP5 is scheduled for release in June 2007. Far enough away, but I dunno if the midyear release works as well for Harry. :\

[Yog]

Summer release does not work too well, IMO. The Harry Potter movies got that christmas holiday feel. In the summer, there will be bigger drops too.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well they have said they haven't decided on when to release Order of the Phoenix, but they need to rethink when and release it in November really the Potter films work better there, just like the Lord of the Rings movies. I am hoping that Rowling gets Book 7 done in 2007 so they can then film 6-7 back to back. Not sure who to pick as a director (I would love Jackson since he has experience doing that, but would he want to do another fantasy series?). And Yoghurt I agree with you the film does amazing in Europe and especially Japan. It will probably make 130-150 million there. I really can't figure out why exactly the Japanese love the series so much. I can understand Star Wars since there is some Samurai mix in the films but Potter really has nothing Japanese. Of course, there could be some other cultural aspect I just don't know about.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think I am going to move these posts in a HBP discussions only because it really doesn't fit with the box office theme :)