Lets do the Hurricane Dance

[Morgan Evanar]

Sweet monkey jeebus here comes another one.

I'm going to have a pizza and move my car.

[CMJ]

The Keys might get a Category 2 storm. I'm really worried about the second landfall though. That could be pretty nasty.

[JMK]

Good thing the peak of the season has passed. Barely. :\

[Sejah Haversh]

I'm very glad I live in Washington.

Yes, Washington, where nothing ever happens natural-disaster-wise.

Sure, we have a supposedly active volcano, but screw it, it's pretty landscape.

[Loklorien s'Ilancy]

Be safe, Morg :(

I never know how to feel about hurricanes - on one hand they can destroy people's lives if powerful enough, yet on the other hand I make alot of money off of them :\


And Sej, let's not forget the random earthquakes. That last one a few years back woke me up from a nice, peaceful sleep. Though I shouldn't complain - all classes were cancelled for the day. I remember hearing that if another large-ish quake hit Seattle, than the ground beneath the Viaduct would liquify. Course, that could just have been fear-mongering.

[Morgan Evanar]

It's fine. I haven't even had the power flicker. It's going to hit Key West which is 150 miles away. But because someone in Washington DC is a giant jerk Customs is open today and I'll end up driving in this craptastic crap to do a run.

I'm going to take the 240SX because it's the most stable in a crosswind.

[CMJ]

Hurricane Carla came in around Port O'Connor, TX on 9/11/61 with 150mph winds, gusts to 175 when anemometers blew. Here's a scary stat about that enormous storm - every coastal county in TX experienced hurricane force winds.

Galveston '00 and Carla are almost mythological back home. We take these seriously. Watch out Texas. :(

[Yog]

Rita has been upgraded to category 2 huricane..

[Morgan Evanar]

Yeah Tejas looks like it's gonna get smacked.

Also, the 240SX stays delightfully planted when getting smacked with 45mph + gusts. I'm so glad I drove it instead of the Civic.

[Nayala Palain]

Jeepers, I would so never live where hurricane where... Leave me to my earthquakes... I dont have to watch them get closer or bigger. They just hit and bam over.

[Tasha McTallen]

I know where I live, we're pretty relaxed when it comes to earthquakes. The last noticeable one we felt, I was in a restaurant and the only ppl that panicked were the tourists. Myself and the others just shrugged it off.

If a hurricane ever hits here, I'm moving up north. I know I couldn't live where hurricanes hit.

[CMJ]

Just like people in hurricane prone areas are scared of quakes. Wherever you're from, you get used to those environmental dangers.

[Sanis Prent]

Hurricanes are slow and relatively easy to avoid as long as you have the means and the wits about you.

Tornadoes are a much scarier stock. I've been within 100 meters of two, one of which being an F4.

[CMJ]

See, I grew up in tornado alley and they never scared me much. The swath of destruction is usually so small I figured my odds were good even if one rolled right thru my hometown, I'd be okay.

Denton never got hit directly, but a few twisters went thru our county. When I was in elementary school a tornado was spotted a few miles away from the campus. But it never touched down.

Now living in CA, I'm always wary of that "Big" quake.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

All I have to worry about is the enormous volcano in my backyard. But, it's dormant.

However, if it did go - there is little chance of survival. :)

[Yog]

Its now upgraded to category 3. Experts predict its going to continue the increase in strength and could even reach cat 4.. :uhoh

[Morgan Evanar]

It's a four now.

[JMK]

I'm so grateful I live way up here. No natural disasters, save for ice storms ever hit here. The odd tornado, but they're weak and very few and far between. Sure we get 4-5 months of cold weather (depending on how much of a sissy you are) but I'll take that over having my home destroyed.

I hope Texas makes it through relatively unscathed. :\

[CMJ]

The satellite presenttion maks it look lik she might be a Category 5. Don't be surprised at an upgrade in the next advisory.

[Pierce Tondry]

Originally posted by JMK
Good thing the peak of the season has passed. Barely. :\


Originally posted by CMJ
The satellite presenttion maks it look lik she might be a Category 5. Don't be surprised at an upgrade in the next advisory.

Way to jinx it JMK.

Glad to hear you Floridians are safe. Hope all the Texans out there remain so.

[CMJ]

http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/hurseas2005/Rita1445z-050921-1kg12.jpg

[Yog]

What a monster.. :eek

[CMJ]

Official category 5.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Its hard to believe we could get a storm worse than Katrinia in the same year.

[CMJ]

Wierdly enough, Katrina was more intense as a Category 4 than Rita is right now as a Category 5. We rank these storms based on pressure.

Besides, I think the NHC will change Katrina's Category in a few years anyways.

[CMJ]

I spoke too soon, pressure just dropped thru the floor again.

[Morgan Evanar]

Uhhhhh this is bad. It's got a lot of open water before it hits, too.

[Yog]

Its freaking amazing that two so strong hurricanes come within such short span of time.

Apart from potential material loss and human casualties, this could hit the oil markets bad too. Just when you thought it could not get any worse:

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-09-21T204336Z_01_FLE173985_RTRUKOC_0_US-RITA-ENERGY-REFINERIES.xml

My predicton is, the price will rebound back over $70. In a 1-2 year scenario, it could go as high as $100. Lack of refinery capacity, capped production capacity, uncertainties due to terrorism/hurricanes and increasing demands due to growing world economy all adds up in the end.

[Marceloi]

Rita now third most intense on record, 898 and falling.

[Jedi Master Carr]

This is scary, if it hits Galveston head on, Houston could be in a lot of trouble.

[CMJ]

Track models are shifting towards the TX/LA border. Looks like we're about to get an eyewall replacement cycle too.

You hear meteorlogists talking alot about that. Basically this is what it is. Remember when you and your friends got on the old park merry-go-round and pushed it so fast that someone fell off. That's exactly what Rita will do, rip her engine apart, in essence. However, you could jump back on the merry-go round before it stopped and repeat the same scenario. ERC's basically take anywhere between 5-12 hours where a storm will lower a category in strength or more, before ramping back up.

That's pretty much an eye wall replacement cycle.

[Jedi Master Carr]

It looks like it is weakening some right now, they are saying it might drop to a 3 even, which would be good news, IMO. It also looks like it is headed towards Houston at the moment from the tracks, but even the experts are saying that might change.

[CMJ]

No, the models have shifted east of Houston Carr. Well, most of them. Expect the next advisory to have the line east of Galveston and Houston

As I said it's going thru an ERC - weakening is expected when it does so. See above post.

[CMJ]

Ummmm, I just read that the Hurricane Hunters found wind gusts of 235 mph in Hurricane Rita when it was at its peak intensity last night.

:eek :eek :eek :eek :eek :eek

[JMK]

That's just ridiculous. It had better not hit land with that type of intensity. Wow that's scary stuff.

[Nayala Palain]

Jeepers man Im so happy I dont live in texas anymore. Also as for the big quak its nothing... please... I figure this, if and when it hits... Im so a gonner.

Shes back down and might even get lower in the time before she hits land. Rita that is...

I figure its mother nature toying with the people on the water fronts... She so owns you.

And just one of my many stupid questions.. why would they change "Katrina's" catagory in years to come?

( Damn its odd typing your name and not meaning you)

[CMJ]

Why would they change Katrina's category? She had a pressure that is typically that of a Category 5. The normal cutoff is 920mbs and under is a Cat 5. Katrina was at 918. Her surge was that of a Category 5.

Andrew was originally listed as a Categoy 4 too btw.

[JMK]

So what was it that made them list Katrina as a 3 or 4 instead of what the facts indicate?

[CMJ]

The measured windspeed at first landfall in LA was around 150mph(though I have my doubts it was that low). By the time it got to the MS coast the windspeed had fallen to borderline Cat 3/4 strength. People focus WAY too much on windspeed though.

The true intensity of hurricanes is and has always been been pressure. That's why you seem them ranked on the NHC website according to pressure.

[CMJ]

The Industrial Canal has been breached again in NO, from all the rain into Lake Ponchartrain

[Morgan Evanar]

Not again :(

At least it's being sheared before it hits! Hooray pressure system. You check the sattilite images and the eye seems to be collapsing.

[CMJ]

The pressure is still quite low, 931mbs as of the last recon report. I'm taking a wait and see before I crack open the champagne. ;)

[Jedi Master Carr]

Hopefully it goes down to a 2 when it hits, that way it won't be that bad. It doesn't look good with that leevy in NO. At least there is nobody there where it broke.

[CMJ]

I don't buy it. The last recon found a pressure of 930mbs and a flight level wind of 129knots, which after doing the accepted conversions is 133mph surface level. That's a Category 4.

[CMJ]

BTW, this is the normal correlation winds to pressure.

117 MPH - 960 mb
132 MPH - 948 mb
146 MPH - 935 mb
161 MPH - 921 mb

Since she's still at 931mbs as of the last recon, forgive me if I have trouble acceptiong that she's a Category 3.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

Wow. Just.... wow.

[Loklorien s'Ilancy]

Originally posted by Lilaena De'Ville
Wow. Just.... wow.

BANNED!!!!!

[CMJ]

Wow, what?

BTW - pressure up to 932mbs. That's still insanely low. Lower than Hugo. Lower than the '00 storm.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

banned? why?

I just think that it's wow that Rita is that big and bad. That's all. :(

[Sanis Prent]

Originally posted by Lilaena De'Ville
banned? why?

I just think that it's wow that Rita is that big and bad. That's all. :(

It's a SA catchprase and is bannable.

[Marceloi]

Originally posted by Sanis Prent
It's a SA catchprase and is bannable.


Originally posted by s'Ilancy
BANNED!!!!!

Banned for backseat moderation

[CMJ]

Southwest LA is starting to get into the real soup now.

Pressure nudging up a tad. Of course it's sort of amusing to say that about a 934mb pressure.

[CMJ]

Eyewall about to push onshore. Saw a report of 130mph winds at a Lake Charles shipping channel. Pressure has contined to nose up, currently 937mbs, which I assume will be the official number for landfall.

[CMJ]

Looks like Cameron, LA for landfall in the next half hour at 938mbs.

[CMJ]

Unbelievably she regained some intensity at landfall - 937mbs. I've so far read reports of a hospital getting its roof peeled off and a local TV station's walls "heaving" in the the winds.

Official landfall was just east of Sabine Pass, probably at Holly Beach at 2:40AM.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

Originally posted by Sanis Prent
It's a SA catchprase and is bannable.

Keep your SA nonsense where it belongs.

[CMJ]

Lake Charles, LA sounds like it's getting absolutely blasted right now.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

Yeah it all sounds pretty horrific. And only a Cat 3, last I heard. Coulda been a 5 - would have been a lot worse.

[Loklorien s'Ilancy]

Sorry, hehe, I just couldn't resist ^_^;


I called Taylor yesterday morning to see how things were shaping up out in Dallas, since I'd read that alot of people were evacuating to there from Houston. I heard that some of the pumps out there were already dry, plus I figured he would be a pretty good source of information as well. From what I gathered, his part of town (and formerly my part as well) wasn't really being affected too much in terms of dry pumps and whatnot.

I do admit though. it was strange reading about people who were evacuating Houston; a bit surreal too, since I used to live both there and in Dallas.

[CMJ]

I hate when people say "just a Category 3". :p

BTW....

1. Labor Day Storm 1935 (5) 892mbs
2. Camille 1969 (5) 909mbs
3. Katrina 2005 (4) 918mbs
4. Andrew 1992 (5) 922mbs
5. Unamed (Indianola TX) 1886 (4) 925mbs
6. Unnamed (FL Keys, S TX) 1919 (4) 927mbs
7. Lake Okeechobee 1928 (4) 929mbs
8. Donna 1960 (4) 930mbs
9. Unnamed (New Orleans LA) 1915 (4) 931mbs
9. Carla 1961 (4) 931mbs
11. LA (Last Island) 1856 (4) 934mbs
11. Hugo 1989 (4) 934mbs
13. Unnamed (Miami FL, MS, AL, Pensacola FL) 1926 (4) 935mbs
14. Galveston TX 1900 (4) 936mbs
15. Rita 2005 (3) 937mbs
16. Unnamed (Brunswick, GA) 1898 (4) 938mbs
16. Hazel 1954 (4) 938mbs
18. Unnamed (SE FL, SE LA, MS) 1947 (4) 940mbs
19. Unnamed (N TX) 1932 (4) 941mbs
19. Charley 2004 (4) 941mbs

Just like her big sister I think Rita might be "underanked". All the storms right around her are 4's. The hazy 3/4 line is typically a round 942-945 mbs. She was well above that.

[CMJ]

Coulda been alot worse? Tell that to Cameron, LA.

http://img286.imageshack.us/img286/2861/cameron18gs.jpg

The only way it could've been much worse is if it hit a more populated area.

[Yog]

Looks like a F5 tornado strolled by.. O_o

[Morgan Evanar]

I think those houses were made of toothpicks and tacos.

[CMJ]

Don't underestimated the power of water. A cubic yard weighs a ton. Raise the level of water 15 feet and put wind drive waves on top of that smashing into homes. Surge doesn't get the press that the winds do, but it's usually way more destructive

[Morgan Evanar]

I know, I was making a joke, since those homes are gone.

Storm surge is wicked.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

Only a 3.

I said it again just to irritate CMJ the hurricane snob. ;)

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well luckily it didn't hit a hugely populated area, like Houston.

[CMJ]

Originally posted by Lilaena De'Ville
Only a 3.

I said it again just to irritate CMJ the hurricane snob. ;)

:p I'm not necessarily a snob, but they do call Category 3's and higher MAJOR hurricanes for a reason.

I still say she was likely a 4. ;)

[Lilaena De'Ville]

:mneh No I know it was a major hurricane and I was not intending to downplay the intensity. however - it can always be worse, and when you have two higher intensity ratings on the scale...

[CMJ]

And as I said, the only way it could've been worse is if it had hit a populated area. Because the area of landfall(Cameron and Holly Beach) was arguably nailed just as hard as anywhere Katrina hit.

When all that's left is a slab, with not even pieces of the house remaining, that's catastrophic. You can't get any worse than that. Oh, and 937mbs, is 937 mbs. See above list. She's in select company.

[Loklorien s'Ilancy]

Some of Rita's leftovers came up yesterday and decided to do the ole 'drop-in'. You know how it is - you get a phone call and hear "hey, we was in the neighborhood, and thought we'd drop in" - next thing you know you've got a tornado knocking on your door. They had the air sirens going yesterday and everything. Apparently a twister touched down in Northport, which is about 5-7 miles from me (best guess). I don't really know the details or anything, cause I was too tired to really care whether I woke up in another county or not and opted for sleep before having to go to work.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well the damage reports are coming in 2-5 billion. I am guessing that is because it hit lesser populated areas. Thanks god it went to the north of Houston.

[CMJ]

LA Times



RITA'S AFTERMATH
Hackberry: Population Zero
The residents survived, but their close-knit Louisiana towns are a landscape of rubble.
By Scott Gold
Times Staff Writer
September 26, 2005

HACKBERRY, La. — Roger Thibodeaux gunned the engine but lowered his voice.

"What we're doing here is illegal," he said. "But we need to know what's in there. We need to know what the rest of our lives are going to be like."

Thibodeaux, 43, and Mike Daigle, 52 — two grizzled friends who live hard and work hard, one on a drilling rig, the other on a shrimp boat — had driven as close as they could Sunday afternoon to the region where Hurricane Rita cast a wall of water into Louisiana. Like thousands of others, they pleaded and cajoled, but authorities told them they could not go home.

So Thibodeaux and Daigle fetched an aluminum skiff and dropped it off the side of the road, just beyond sight of a roadblock. Their voices hushed, they turned left over Choupain Road, then left again over the front yard of Judge Broussard's mama's house.

Half an hour later, they made their way to Hackberry, a town of 1,700 people and one coffee shop in southwest Louisiana. They stepped onto the shore, plunging into dark, gooey mud and devastation.

Remarkably, Rita appears to have killed no one in Louisiana. But in several small towns, the massive storm surge that followed the hurricane carted away something most locals thought was more enduring: their way of life.

In Hackberry, all 750 homes were damaged, and most were destroyed. Fish, their cloudy eyes bulging toward the sun, are rotting in the mud. The storm seems to have picked up most houses and let loose their contents like a salt shaker — soggy checkbooks, potted orange trees, a child's bedpost with stickers reminding him to brush and floss.

"It was a nice place to live," Daigle said as he waded down Channel Drive to the home where he and his wife of 32 years raised their two children.

"Everybody kind of knew everybody here. On a Saturday night, we might go walking and meet people. One night one will cook, and another night somebody else. Sometimes somebody might get a sack or two of crawfish, and we'll all head over there and have a nice time. Now I don't see but about four houses that people are going to be able to even live in. How are they ever going to be able to rebuild?"

Neighboring towns did even worse.

To the southeast, Cameron — a port providing employment to hundreds in the area — is gone. A historic courthouse that was one of the few structures to survive Hurricane Audrey in 1957 sustained heavy damage.

The tiny town of Holly Beach, a smattering of fish camps and cottages with a population of about 175, appears to have been leveled.

Officials who flew over in helicopters said they would have no reason to think that a town had ever been there if it hadn't been for a few telephone poles jutting out of the water.

"As far as we can tell, it's just flat," said Barry Badon, the area coordinator for the Cameron Parish Office of Emergency Preparedness. "This is ground zero of this storm, where the wind met the flooding."

Badon lives in nearby Johnson's Bayou, southwest of Hackberry. His own home, he said, "is probably not there."

Still, residents pressed against roadblocks from every direction Sunday, desperate to learn the fate of their homes. Sharon Felice, 58, roared up to a roadblock on Highway 27 about noon, demanding to be allowed to drive into Hackberry.

Wearing a flowered housedress and slippers, she pleaded with a sheriff's deputy, who touched her on the arm and told her that the highway — the only way into and out of town — was washed out so badly that even some emergency vehicles had been unable to get through.

"We're not many people, and we're nobodies, but we're a community," she said. "And by God, we want to know what's going on. My husband's grave is down there. My daddy's church — he was a preacher and he'll be 87 the 4th of October — I don't know what's happened to that. And my cats. I had to leave them. I know they're hungry."

Tears streamed down her face.

"I feel like, how do you say it, like an alien moving into a new country," she said as a new lake lapped on both sides of the highway and ate away at abandoned, crumbling farmhouses. "But this is my country, my home. Look at it."

Some say it will never be the same, even in the areas that can be rebuilt.

Daigle's son, Marty, 30, grew up assuming that he would be captain of a shrimp boat too. Then he saw how hard his father had to work, pulling long days alone on the 44-foot Southern Comfort, tossing out one 50-foot net at a time in the inland bayous and lakes of southern Louisiana.

Marty, who graduated from Hackberry High School in 1994 among a class of 23, lives in Houston and works for a company that builds elevators.

"It's sad," said the son, who had accompanied his father to check on their family home Sunday. "That's no easy life, and there are no young people getting into it. There's just one guy I grew up with who does a little fishing."

Even if there are still some shrimp boats and some captains to pilot them in coming years, it is unlikely the industry will survive in this region, Mike Daigle said. Even if he has a good day of shrimping — that's about 2,500 pounds of shrimp — there is no place to sell it because the infrastructure of the ports and the markets appears to have been destroyed.

"You've got to have some place to bring it in," he said. "There's nothing. There won't be anything down here for a while."

Still, Daigle pledged to rebuild.

"We haven't had anything like this for 50 years," he said. "You've got to figure it'll be another 50 years before it happens again. And I won't be around for that."

So he went home Sunday.

His first stop was his house, a 35-year-old former fish camp that he bought from a cousin more than 20 years ago.

Fiddler crabs had taken up residence in the murky water on his street as he waded in, ducking under bowed power lines and checking the occasional mailbox to see whether there was any mail to bring out for anyone.

"There she is," he said as he rounded a curve.

A pile of storm debris teeming with fire ants covered the three steps, and he struggled to get to the door. Inside, the mud had crept in, and part of the ceiling had fallen in. But it was all there.

The stuffed turtle and the toy truck belonging to Tate, his 2-year-old grandson. The picture of Tate taken last Christmas, wearing a Santa suit.

The eight-point buck that Daigle shot a few years ago with a rifle, his wife's size 7 shoes, the bookshelf with "Where the Red Fern Grows" and "Facts About the Presidents."

"I think we did OK," he said. "I'll get a water hose and drill a few holes in the floor, and I'll clean it out in no time."

He opened the freezer, which had managed to keep the ice cream cold, if no longer frozen. It was a treat after a long, hot journey home, and he took a few spoonfuls.

"I'm going to eat all the strawberries out of it and leave the rest for my wife," he said with a smile. "That's what she always does to me."

Daigle initially thought the town had fared better than he had feared. But armed with a list of houses that neighbors wanted him to check on, he soon learned otherwise. Many are no longer where they used to be.

"See that gray house?" he said. "That used to be on the other side of the road. And right over there, that house used to be on those blocks."

He pointed to a spot about 60 feet away, where a forest of small, cinder block posts jutted out from a flooded field.

"Now it's in that guy's backyard," he said.

He stopped at what used to be an intersection. A house appeared to have imploded. Outside the home was a remnant of the family business, a refrigerator trailer painted with the words, "Seafood so fresh you have to slap it."

"It's not good," he said. "Not good at all. I wouldn't wish this on nobody else."

Thibodeaux was waiting for him back at the boat.

"How'd you do?" Daigle asked him.

"OK, I guess," Thibodeaux said. "Still standing."

"Yep," Daigle said. "Me too."

www.latimes.com (registration required)

[Yog]

Maybe time to do the hurricane dance again. The tropical storm "Wilma" is now a Category 1 hurricane, expected to increase to cat 3 within one to two days. Its projected to hit southwestern parts of Florida this weekend.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

"WILLLLLMAAAAAA!"/fredflinstone

[Morgan Evanar]

Crap. I have an autocross I was hoping would happen.

[CMJ]

She looks good on satellite. Her eye is really small. Don't be surprised to see her bomb out in the next few hours. She's gonna be fierce by tommorrow at this time.

[Morgan Evanar]

:( I want to bash cones :(

[CMJ]

Bombing out pressure wise. Already a Category 2.

[Jedi Master Carr]

They say it might weaken it once it gets closer to Florida of course how strong will it be by the time it reaches that point is the problem.

[CMJ]

Pressure just dropped thru the f'n floor. It's at 901mbs. AMAZING!

Winds measure around 168mph sustained.

[Sanis Prent]

Wow. That was fast.

[CMJ]

The NHC's advisory puts the winds at 150mph. As is typical they undershoot the intensity to see if she can hold her strength before saying cat 5.

[CMJ]

000
WTNT64 KNHC 190629
TCUAT4
HURRICANE WILMA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HURRICANE WILMA
HAS BECOME AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED
175 MPH WINDS AND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 892 MB. THIS IS
THE LOWEST PRESSURE OBSERVED IN 2005 AND IS EQUIVALENT TO THE
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS.

FORECASTER AVILA




OMFG, 892mbs?? Strong as the Labor Day Storm?? HOLY F'N CRAP!

Sorry, weather geek moment. I think I had a heart attack and pure addreneline rush in the same instant.

[Yog]

I wake up to read this O_o

[CMJ]

Her eye is 2 miles wide. Which explains the rapid intensification. It also means she can't keep this intensity very long.

[CMJ]

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REPORTED 884 MB...THE LOWEST
MINIMUM PRESSURE EVER MEASURED IN A HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN...THIS VALUE SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION UNTIL CALIBRATED...


I don't know what to say.....

[Yog]

<=== is speechless

[CMJ]

I'm out of superlatives.

[Morgan Evanar]

Dammit. At least on the bright side this means the storm will get really weak right? Right? No way the merry-go round can keep spinning this fast.

I am doing the wishful thinking dance.

[Sanis Prent]

By really weak, you mean a strong Cat 4. If it weakens it just means you've got the good swing of an eyewall replacement cycle.

[Yog]

They corrected the old number from 884 to 882. Thats an all time record in the Atlantic. Judging by the satelite photos, it looks even stronger now, but there are no new recon flights reports yet..

This is my wallpaper right now:
http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/hurseas2005/Wilma1315z-051019-1kg12.jpg

[CMJ]

She might get sheared heavily too. The upper level winds will be semi-hostile in acouple of days.

[JMK]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9710472/

175 mph winds, 882 millibars.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

Yeah I just read that. I can't help but remembe that Wilma was only a tropical storm... yesterday morning?

I'm so glad my grandma is still visiting my parents in Oklahoma. She's stayed out of her home in Florida for the majority of this hurricane season and won't be returning until the beginning of November. It just gets hard to evacuate all the time at a certain age.

Be safe Floridians!

(I also can't help but recall your (CMJ) reminder of the horrific damage a hurricane in New York would do - and they say that Wilma might go up and hit New England!)

[CMJ]

Reopened my book on the Labor Day Storm. Wanted to share this....




The needle kept plunging, and by 7:4 5pm it had fallen to the lowest reading his barometer could register - 26.00 inches. Butters was terrified by the astonishingly low reading - but he was strangely fascinated as well. He couldn't stop the needle's relentless nosedive any more than he could stop himself from staring at the instrument. He realized that by watching it fall was was only adding to his terror. He decided he no longer needed the barometer to tell him what was plainly obvious - this was one helluva hurricane.

Butters held the barometer aloft and shouted above the roar of the storm for atention of the others in his Plymouth.

"I called 5 witnesses, and threw [the light of] my flashlight on it," Butters said. "And I don't want to read this thing anymore."

With that, Butters rolled down the window of his car and flung the barometer into the storm.



Since the instrument was lost - it was never verified. A pressure of 26.00inches of mercury would be 880mbs.

[Yog]

^^ awesome story. I love how he threw the barometer out of the window. Because Labor Day hurricane hit with such incredible strength at landfall still makes it the most powerful recorded hurricane ever in my eyes.

But Wilma is no snoozer either. The lowest ever official/verified recorded pressure. She his currently hitting up Yucatan pretty bad, may strafe Cuba and on projected to hit Florida. And Like LD mentioned, there are now calculated models showing it may also hit New England and the Maine area after passing through Florida. I read they are allready struggling with dams there. Imagine what heavy rainfall and stormsurge would do..

Right now, the pressure dropped to 900 mb, but IR satelite images allready indicate an Eye Replacement Cycle.

Also for the Floridans on this board. Pay attention to the forecasts. It MAY hit further north than projected so far.

[Yog]

Btw, I recommend these sites for getting the latest updates:

National Hurricane Center - offical goverment site where all the reports come first
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

One of my favorite weather sites:
http://www.weather.com/

As always, whenever something happens, Wikipedia is the place to go:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Wilma

Hurricanecity - where the cane fanatics/experts post analysis/reports:
http://members.boardhost.com/hurricanecity/


and here is a fairly recent pic of Wilma:
http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/hurseas2005/Wilma1615z-051019-1kg12.jpg

[Lilaena De'Ville]

That eye is just TINY looking.

[CMJ]

It was between 2-4 miles wide at it's peak. That's astoundingly small, and the reason she spun up so fast.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

CAT 4 now? Is it going to get bigger again or think it'll die a little before it reaches Florida?

[Sanis Prent]

Eyewall Replacement Cycle.

It will get stronger again.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

I know what an eyewall replacement cycle is.

[CMJ]

Seems I've educated the whole board. ;)

The last recon report indicated 150mph winds with a 918mb pressure. That pressure typically translates to Cat 5 intensity, even if the winds might not support it quite yet.

Basically these are the exact statistics Katrina made landfall with.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I heard the pressure went up to 928, it sounds like it is weakening. Hopefully it goes down to a 2 by then.

[CMJ]

Originally posted by Jedi Master Carr
I heard the pressure went up to 928, it sounds like it is weakening. Hopefully it goes down to a 2 by then.

You heard wrong. Last recon pass(with the last hour) recorded 923mb and 145 knot winds flight level, which after using the acepted conversions, is 150mph surface.

[Jedi Master Carr]

well maybe I read it wrong and saw that 3 as an 8 :p either way it looks like it is weakening a little bit. The forecasters are saying the waters are colder near south Florida so it should weaken some the closer it gets to shore.

[CMJ]

That's not gonna help the Yucatan much. She looks to clip the northern section near Cozumel and Cancun if the track stays the same.

http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/avhrr/gm/averages/05oct/gm_05oct20_0235_mult.png

What colder waters?

[Jedi Master Carr]

Yeah Cancun is in for it that is for sure. About the waters I am only repeating what I partly heard on CNN this morning. The weather guy said it wouldn't weaken for some reason when it got closer to Florida maybe it has more to do with the currents.

[Yog]

Take a look at this monster eye!
http://members.boardhost.com/hurricanecity/msg/124397.html

Both me and CMJ simultanously exclaimed "OUCH" when looking at it. I dont look forward to see the damage report in the morning.

[CMJ]

Looks like she's gonna clip Cozumel and nail Cancun at her current intensity. So, a 930mb hurricane with 145mph winds. May not be her former astonishing state, but that's still a helluva hurricane folks.

The hotels should hold up "okay" because they build those things like fortresses. Residences are another story.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Cancun is getting hit hard right now, looks like the storm is just going to sit there till Sunday morning. This is probably good news for Florida although very bad for Cancun, I feel bad for the people there :(

[CMJ]

Cancun, about an hour ago best I can tell.

http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/jpgKurX9AogOL.jpg

[Lilaena De'Ville]

Incredible.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Wow

[CMJ]

I seriously wonder what will be left of Cozumel or Cancun. They're gonna take a thrashing from a Category 4 hurricane for nearly 24 hours by the time she's done. She's been moving between 3-6 mph all day long.

Good lord.

[Charley]

On top of what they got from Emily earlier this year.

[CMJ]

Exactly Charley. They actually fared as well as could be expected with Emily, since she was decreasing and moving at a good clip when she went thru. But alot of infrastructure was decimated. I read a few places that had been closed down because of Emily just reopened last week.

And Wilma is far worse. Sort of like Pennsacola with Erin and Opal in '95.

[Yog]

Check out "The Madman in Cancun". His reports are exciting to say the least :)

http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/mexico.shtml

[Lilaena De'Ville]

Hey I was looking at the recent pics of Wilma (which is moving fater, about 14 mph now and headed straight for FL) and the eye isn't defined anymore. Is this still the eyewall replacement cycle, or something else? Or does it mean anything at all?

[Morgan Evanar]

The winds have come up and the pressure is going down and I can't sleep. This is really unusual.

[Yog]

Is this still the eyewall replacement cycle, or something else? Or does it mean anything at all?

Probably, yes, but it would need more time over warm water for the opportunity to build up. Given more time, I belive it would have hit cat 4 again. Passing over Yucatan weakened it conciderably. The pressure is at 952mb (latest number). The IR images do indicate its strenghtenening rather than weakening before landfall. Its current windspeed is 130 mph, similar to what hit Cancun. Top end of category 3 basically:

http://web.naplesnews.com/hurricane/00/d441115a.htm


The winds have come up and the pressure is going down and I can't sleep. This is really unusual

Sorry to hear that. Hope you find safe shelter :(

[CMJ]

Sorry, I've been out of town for a few days - hence no analysis. I have been watching her however. ;)

[Lilaena De'Ville]

CMJ you know you can't leave us when there's a hurricane coming! We need your hurricane play-by-play!

[CMJ]

Another board I'm on expressed the same concern :p

[Lilaena De'Ville]

You've cheated on us with another board!? :eek

[JMK]

He's a regular storm watching slut. ;)

But heres the tougher question: Is he knocking boots with the twisters, typhoons, cyclones and tornadoes too?, or is he a one-man disaster kinda guy?

[CMJ]

Technically Typhoons, Cyclones, and hurricanes are the same thing. ;)

But I'm a one disaster type of guy. :p

[JMK]

I knew typhoons and hurricanes were one and the same, but cyclones too? Someone needs to officially amalgamate those words.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

I believe Australia had a different name for hurricanes as well, like a willysomething, but I can't remember. It was a long time ago when I studied them in school.

[CMJ]

Names - off of wikpedia


hurricane in the North Atlantic Ocean, North Pacific Ocean east of the dateline, and unofficially in the South Atlantic Ocean
typhoon in the Northwest Pacific Ocean west of the dateline
severe tropical cyclone in the Southwest Pacific Ocean west of 160°E or Southeast Indian Ocean east of 90°E
severe cyclonic storm in the North Indian Ocean
tropical cyclone in the Southwest Indian Ocean and South Pacific Ocean east of 160°E.


The aboriginal perople of Australia called them Willy-Willies I believe LD.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

Yay I'm not crazy! :D

Well, I still might be, but not because of this...

[CMJ]

:lol

No worries.

[Jedi Master Carr]

LOL we missed your reporting CMJ :) Well it looks like the storm was bad in some places but at least it didn't hit Florida at a 4. Still, it doesn't look good for Cancun and the rest of the Yucatan.

[Morgan Evanar]

Hey guys, no power, I'm on a generator. The cold front came down and the weather is fantastic, so no AC isn't a big deal. There isn't much damage here at all so hopefully they'll get the power back on soon.

[Yog]

Good to hear youre ok. I hope Shawn is ok as well :)

[Shawn]

Same deal as Chris. On a generator at the moment, but I won't be on often. Been cleaning up branches and stuff all day.

[Marceloi]

Originally posted by CMJ
Names - off of wikpedia



The aboriginal perople of Australia called them Willy-Willies I believe LD.


Willy-Willy's are in fact small tornado like disturbances that can range from a small spiral of dust to a resonably impressive twister. Nowhere near like you get in the USA, more of a dust devil.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

As a side note, there is a nor'easter battering the north east coast of the States now. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9812110/

[Shawn]

I have cold air and hot water. :D Finally!

[Jedieb]

My parents got power back yesterday. Glad to hear everybody is okay.