Fall Box office September-October

[Jedi Master Carr]

I am going with Yoghurt's advise and will do seasonal look at the box office. In this we can talk predictions (weekely and seasonaly) or just about the box office in general. To get the ball rolling here is the list of the notable movies coming out.
We have already had one big movie this month, the Exoricsm of Emily Rose which opened at 30 million this past weekend

September
Friday 16th
Just like Heaven (supernatural romance film starring Reese Witherspoon)
Lord of War (action-comedy starring Nicholas Cage)

Friday 23th
Tim Burton's The Corpse Bride (Burton, animated film)
Flightplan (Thriller starring Jodie Foster)

Friday 30th
Into the Blue (some ocean film starring Jessica Alba and Paul Walker)
Serentity (based on the cult tv show Firefly)
The Greatest Game ever played (Golf family movie by Disney)
Oliver Twist (Polaniski's verison of this Dickens classic)
History of Violence (based on lesser known comic book starring Viggo Mortenson)

October
7th
In her Shoes (based on a novel starring Cameron Diaz)
Two for the Money (Gambling drama staring Al Pacinio)
Wallace and Gromit (animated film)

14
Domino (thriller)
Elizabethtown (Cameron Crowe's newest film)
The Fog (horror remake of the classic John Carpenter film)

21
Doom (video game movie)
Dreamer (family drama staring Kurt Russel)
North Country (comedy)
ShopGirl (comedy)
Stay (thriller)

28
Legend of Zorro (sequel to the hit Zorro)
Saw 2 (horror sequel)
Prime
The Weatherman (drama starring Nicholas Cage)

okay any thoughts predictions?
One thing it is a crowded two months and possibly some really good movies there.

[sirdizzy]

Don't forget Cry Wolf this weekend either, the movie looks intriguing.


I have been severly dissapointed with the quality of movies this yeat, for 3 straight years I have seen 100+ movies in the theatres and this year I will probably only hit 80. I did miss such phenemonal movies as Crash though.

[jjwr]

Legend of Zorro....for a sequel to a hit movie thats coming out in a month I've heard nothing about this and wasn't even aware it was coming. I enjoyed the first and hope they're not just burying this one

[Jedi Master Carr]

I have seen previews to it a couple of times. I figure TV ads will be on next month. Cry Wolf I didn't think about, I saw it was a limited release and I skipped most of them unless they were expanding like Oliver Twist and A history of Violence, both of which are expanded in a crowded weekend of September 30th, that looks too crowded to me.

[Jedi Master Carr]

This thread has been a little dead although, September box office has been amazing, last weekend was up about 50% from last year. Lead by Flightplan and Corpse's Bride. I really want to see Corpse's Bride being a big Burton fan. I was hoping it would do better although it still might have great legs.

[CMJ]

Prime is a terrific genre picture. I was lucky enough to see it last week.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Curious what is it about? I have seen the name listed just didn't know what is it about.

[CMJ]

I guess you could say it's a rom com of sorts. Uma Thurman plays a recent divorcee who starts dating an early 20 something guy. Meryl Streep is her shrink. Both eventually realize that Thurman is dating Streep's son. It's pretty hysterical.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Cool sounds like it would be very funny.

[Rutabaga]

My sister is in town for a few days and I've taken some time off from work, so we went to see Flightplan yesterday. It was pretty good, we both enjoyed it a lot. We'd both had an idea about what the plot resolution might have been, and we were actually quite happy that our idea got brought up halfway through the movie and then proven to be totally wrong. Especially since our idea would have made the movie somewhat of a downer in the end.

Next up is The Corpse Bride, and then the other titles I'm looking forward to for October are Wallace and Gromit and The Legend of Zorro.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I am probably going to see Corpses bride this weekend. Other that the only movie I might go see between now and Harry Potter is Zorro.

[Yog]

Biggest movie of october will be The Legend of Zorro with a $40M openin, 120M total. Looks pretty good from the trailer, and will draw in the crowds.

Here are my october predictions (opening weekends):

October
7th
In her Shoes 15M
Two for the Money 12M
Wallace and Gromit (animated film) 19M

14
Domino - not heard/seen anything about this
Elizabethtown - 6M
The Fog - 22M

21
Doom - 9M
Dreamer - 16M
North Country - no idea what this is
ShopGirl - 13M
Stay - 12M

28
Legend of Zorro 40M
Saw 2 - 33M
Prime - 18M
The Weatherman - 22M

Of the september/october releases you posted Carr, I cant say I am overly excited about any of them. Might not even see any of them in movie theater. But if I had to pick those who look the most interesting, I would say Zorro, Wallace and Grommit, Prime, Flightplan and The Corpse Bride.

I however recently watched Batman Begins and Cinderella Man. I was slightly disappointed about Batman. Did not enjoy it nearly as much as I expected reading reviews, but its a good setup for later movies. Cinderella Man on the other hand, I enjoyed tremendously. Great boxing movie with a heart that kept me on the edge of the seat throughout. Brilliant performance by Russel Crowe. Highly recommended and one of my favorite movies of the year so far.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I suppose something could surprise like The Fog. Not sure what Serenity will do. I think non fans of that show will have trouble with it. I say Zorro finishes first right now unless The Fog or In her Shoes becomes a big hit.

[Yog]

The Fog like kind of interesting, but I wonder how it will meassure up to the original.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Yeah that is my thing right now. I am not sure if it will be as good. However, I think teens might flock to it being Halloween and all.

[sirdizzy]

Domino
From director Tony Scott and inspired by a real-life story, Keira Knightley stars as Domino Harvey, who rejected her privileged Beverly Hills lifestyle as the daughter of a famous actor (Lawrence Harvey) and a Ford agency model to become a bounty hunter in pursuit of society's nastiest criminals.


and it looks really good


North Country
When Josey Aimes returns to her hometown in Northern Minnesota after a failed marriage, she needs a good job. A single mother with two children to support, she turns to the predominant source of employment in the region - the iron mines. The last thing the miners want is women competing for scarce jobs - women who, in their estimation, have no business driving trucks and hauling rock anyway. When Josey speaks out against the treatment she and her fellow workers face it takes her farther than she ever imagined, ultimately inspiring countless others, and leading to the nation's first-ever class action lawsuit for sexual harassment.

[Jedi Master Carr]

North Country I think is an oscar contender, I thought I read that somewhere.

[sirdizzy]

It sounds like the pretensions BS that they want to win an oscar with thats for sure. Plus its an October release, I hate the oscars stupid policy of best picture released between october-december rather than best picture of the year.

[CMJ]

Most of the films that rank high on my lists are released in the last few months of the year. It's not a policy, it's just what happens when the studios hold on to their hopefuls.

There are exceptions you know. In the last 15 or so years you had Silence of the Lambs a February release, Forrest Gump a June release, Braveheart a May release, American Beauty a September release, Gladiator a May release.

Not to mention alot of NOMINATED films that came from the earlier parts of the year(Lost in Translation, Seabiscuit, Apollo 13, Saving Private Ryan, Erin Brokovich, Moulin Rouge, etc).

[Jedi Master Carr]

September was a great month and ended great with Flightplan and Corpse's bride but the last two weeks has been awful. Serenity is a huge disapointment and the other newbies really didn't do that well. Wallace and Grommit did okay but will need good legs to get near a 100. Probably won't have a 100 million dollar movie in the next two months, unless something surprises.

[Yog]

I think Zorro is going to make it past 100.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Really the fall got off to a good start but it suffered thoughout much of October, only Saw 2 really came though in that month. Here is what I think how the fall season went. I went though and tried to deterimed what was a hit-disapointment or flop.
I came with 6 categories
MegaBlockbuster something like Star Wars, nothing even close to that this month
Blockbuster- movies like Batman Begins and War of the Worlds, nothing close either.

Hit- several films landed in this category, it depends on how much it makes compared to its budget

Broke even might make a profit when it lands on DVD
Disapointment, won't make a profit but it won't set back its studio
Flop, a disaster, fiancial, critical, and might drastically hurt the studio, or directors careers.

Still Playing wide (a)

Mega-Blockbuster None
Blockbuster None
Hit
The Exorcism of Emily Rose 74.808 (based on its budget it is the most successful film from the
early fall)
(a)Saw 2 31.725 (could pass Emily Rose as most successful, considering how much it cost)
Flightplan 81.277
Transporter 2 42.808 (low budget)
(a)Wallace and Gromit 49.694 (should make around 60 million and with its budget I call it a hit)

Broke Even
Tim Burton's The Corpse Bride 51.905
Just like Heaven 47.636
The Constant Gardener 32.949
History of Violence 28.542
In her Shoes 29.225
The Fog 25.311
(a)Dreamer 17.374(could go either way will depend on its legs)

Disapointment
Serentity 24.845
Lord of War 24.127
Elizabethtown 22.699
Two for the Money 22.151
The Greatest Game ever played 14.711
Into the Blue 18.472
(a)Doom 23.034

Flop
Oliver Twist 1.987
Stay 3.349
Domino 9.811

Undetermined
(a)North Country 12.109 (could go into breakeven I think right now especially if gets into Oscar
race)
(a)Legend of Zorro 16.328 (will depend on its legs either break even or disapointment
Prime 6.22 (will depend on legs)
The Weatherman 4.248 (will depend on legs)

Hopefully Saw 2's opening is a good sign for November, I do think November will be a heck of a month with Chicken Little, Jarhead, Zathura, Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire, Walk the Line, and Mine Yours and Mine, all opening. I will post my thoughts on that tomorrow.

[Yog]

Saw 2 had a great start. I forgot it was opening on Halloween. Could have decent legs too.

Harry Potter, I think it will do more than 250.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Yeah Saw 2 a heck of an opening. It should make 70 million easily, and considering it cost less than 10 million to make, that studio will make a bundle on it.
About Potter I will comment on it, in the Holiday Box office thread. I think I am going to do some predictions :)