Box Office weekend 9

[Jedi Master Carr]

Okay three movies out
A new Herbie Movie
Bewitched
Land of the Dead (only opening in 2000 theaters keep that in mind)
Have until Sunday 9AM.

[CMJ]

1. Bewitched - 26.79
2. Batman Begins - 26.24M
3. Herbie Fully Loaded - 18.58M
4. Mr. and Mrs. Smith - 14.59M
5. Land of the Dead - 11.49M

[Jedi Master Carr]

1 Batman Begins 28.45
2 Bewitched 25.21
3 Herbie Fully loaded 19.43
4 Mr and Mr Smith 13.77
5 Star Wars Revenge of the Sith 8.77

I am going to keep Star Was even though it might not make it, I don't think Land of the Dead is going to do that well. I bet it doesn't make 10 million.

[Yog]

1. Batman Begins - $24.76M
2. Bewitched - $22.85
3. Herbie Fully Loaded - $16.22M
4. Mr. and Mrs. Smith - $15.99M
5. Land of the Dead - $9.33M

[Yog]

Weekend Estimates

1 1 Batman Begins WB $26,770,000 -45.1% 3,858 - $6,938 $121,697,000 $150 2
2 N Bewitched Sony $20,200,000 - 3,174 - $6,364 $20,200,000 $80 1
3 2 Mr. and Mrs. Smith Fox $16,750,000 -35.7% 3,265 -186 $5,130 $125,438,000 $110 3
4 N Herbie: Fully Loaded BV $12,750,000 - 3,521 +2,665 $3,621 $17,787,000 $50 1
5 N George A. Romero's Land of the Dead Uni. $10,233,000 - 2,249 - $4,550 $10,233,000 $15 1
6 3 Madagascar DW $7,300,000 -32.0% 2,948 -585 $2,476 $160,056,000 - 5
7 4 Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith Fox $6,250,000 -37.7% 2,371 -552 $2,636 $358,606,000 $113 6
8 5 The Longest Yard Par. $5,475,000 -33.6% 2,516 -796 $2,176 $141,895,000 $82 5
9 6 The Adventures of Shark Boy and Lava Girl (3D) Dim. $3,425,000 -48.8% 2,352 -303 $1,456 $30,469,000 - 3
10 7 Cinderella Man Uni. $3,270,000 -41.3% 1,677 -933 $1,949 $49,592,000 $88 4
11 8 The Perfect Man Uni. $2,498,000 -52.9% 2,090 +3 $1,195 $10,783,000 $10 2
12 N Rize Lions $1,600,000 - 352 - $4,545 $1,600,000 - 1

Batman does ok. Very strong hold for Mr. and Mrs. Smith + Longest Yard. Average hold for ROTS. Kinda sad to see Madagascar beat it so effortlessly though. The openers seem to do roughly as expected, except for maybe the Herbie movie. Its at least 10 years late, not for todays market. Other than that, nothing surprising this weekend.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Batman held well, it is on pace do 175-190, which is good considering what the last two films of the franchise did. You are right on the money for Herbie, Disney should have never made that movie.

[CMJ]

Batman Forever actually did like 180M didn't it? It was huge that summer, I remember. I'm guessing adjusted for inflation that'd be over 210M. So BB definitely is a return to the big grosses of the first three in the franchise.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Yeah Batman Forever was number 1 that year. To me Jim Carrey made that movie though it really wasn't about Batman, it was how Carrey stole the film which he did.

[CMJ]

So you shouldn't have lumped the last two together. ;)

[Jedi Master Carr]

LOL yeah although I guess I was thinking more along the lines of quality. Neither film was very beloved by Batman Fans.

[CMJ]

From David Poland at www.thehotbutton.com

True or False?

The 89 films released by the major studios in 2005 have, to date (June 17), made a lot less money than the 94 films released by the majors in 2004?

If you said "true," you would be wrong.

As of last Sunday, the films released by the studios and their various divisions this year have grossed $3,080,207,993.

As of the analogous Sunday last year (June 20), the films released by the studios and their various divisions this year had grossed $3,112,717,419.

So, using this standard, the studios have so far grossed just $32,509,426 less than they did last year on new movies. And given that there is a four-day difference (last year was a leap year) between the numbers, the reality is that this year is likely ahead of last year by a few million dollars.

Let me repeat… the studio business - Hollywood!!! - that The New York Times and other just can't stop telling us are in a terrible slump… it's actually up for the year.

Will any of these outlets get the message and stop the madness? Of course not. They have a vested interest in being right, even if they are wrong.

The overall box office has come up short in the Indie Sector, in which I would not count Fahrenheit 9/11, as it was funded by a major, even if sold off. However, it doesn't factor into these numbers yet because of its release date.

149 indies have been released this year. They've grossed $149,954,015.

161 indies were released by this date last year, grossing about $540 million. (I am not being 100% exact, since I have no had the time to break out all of the indie films that opened before June 20 and generated some of their income after June 20 last year. This estimate is almost $9 million under the ultimate total domestic gross in an effort towards conservatism.)

That's about a $390 million drop in the sector… which is a drop of $20 million more than the gross of The Passion of The Christ.

The reason the whole number is not down by the whole $390 million is that holdover business from 2004 releases is about $100 million greater this year than holdover business from 2003 was last year.

That puts the overall market down about $290 million.

I'll leave it there for now... is the studio system in crisis? You tell me...

Except to note that there is a way to put the industry in crisis... keep saying it's in crisis... even if it isn't true... at least not financially.

[Yog]

Thats an interesting article. It sure puts things in a different light (if the data is correct). Regardless of that, Hollywood is not in a crisis of course. What one have to realise, a major part of a movies income is based on DVD sales. DVD makes on average 2x as much gross and are more profitable on distribution lebel. Then there are TV rights and licensing.

Part of the reason everyone says its a slump or that it looks like a slump, there are not a heck of a lot of movies grossing more than 200M right now. In fact, only one movie managed reach that mark so far, and thats ROTS. #2 on the list is Hitch with 179M. The big blockbusters that dominate the summer are far and between or not doing as expected. What you also have to concider, the release schedule for the rest of the summer does not look so hot. Sure, we got War of the Worlds next weekend which should be a huge hit. Then there is Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, and after that its Fantastic Four (I think those two, if not flop, they are likely to disappoint). Thats about it.

But hey, if you think summer is slow, winter should be huge in comparison. We got King Kong, Harry Potter and Narnia set up for the end of the year. Those movies should more than compensate I think.

Honestly, I am not worried about Hollywood in the slightest. The studios are stronger and more able to face slumps than most others in an increasingly fragmented and competitive market. They have nothing to complain about, really. If you want to look at a vulnerable low profit margin sector, check out the computer and consoles games industry. There are programmers out there who work 20 hours a day and on weekends only to see years of invested time end up in a flop. Now thats what I call a tough business.

If anything, I always believed sharing movies over P2P networks just increase profit for the studios. Everyone knows that watching movies on a big screen and with a high quality sound system provides a superior experience to watching a cam downloaded from the Internet. The unauthorised digital distributing just serves to act as free marketing and a quality filter. If its really good, people will head out and watch it in a theater. If its really bad, people wont bother. Fooling people to watch trash through deceiving marketing wont work so well as it used to in the past. One of the interesting things about P2P, the most copied and digitally distributed movies ever were also some of the most succesful box office wise. This goes for spiderman, Star Wars prequels and LOTR for example.

Regarding budget, in order to calculate the studios profit, you also have to factor in production and marketing cost. You gotta remember, even if a movie only makes a 15-20M opening, sometimes that kind of box office run is enough for the studios to make a profit. I would imagine the studios spend more money overall on average in production budget and marketing than they used to though. On the other hand, they spend maybe less than they used to on the really big blockbusters. They take less big risks. We dont see see projects like Titanic, because there is no market for that. Huge sets and expensive on location shooting tends to take a backseat to blue screen and digital effects. CGI has become increasingly cost efficient.

I believe the bottom line of this 'slump' is, Hollywood will do fine, they just got to come up with better movies. I am more worried about the drops in the indie sector.

[Yog]

Spielberg comments on the box office slump.

Q : What do you think of the box office being in a slump and what do you think can be done to change it?

Spielberg : I don't believe this is the exhibitor's responsibility. The exhibitors don't have to tweak their theaters. We don't have to find a new platform or medium to communicate our stories with you. We don't necessarily have to build screens three times bigger. We don't have to IMAX out this world. We just have to make the kind of movies that you want to see. If the box office is in a slump, I don't believe it's because people are watching cable or playing their video games so much; I really don't believe that. I believe that when the right movie comes along, people will show up for it.


Full interview with Tom Cruise and Spielberg at:

http://www.comingsoon.net/news.php?id=10160

[Jedi Master Carr]

Weekend Totals

Winner of Movie #1 Jedi Master Carr
Winner of Movie #2 Master Yoghurt
Winner of Movie #3 Master Yoghurt
Winner of Movie #4 Master Yoghurt
Winner of Movie #5 Master Yoghurt

Weekend Totals
Master Yoghurt 60
Jedi Master Carr 35
CMJ 5

Contest Totals
Jedi Master Carr 340
Master Yoghurt 335
CMJ 275
Jedieb 95
Clive Solo 5
Liam Jinn 5
Drake Shadowstalker 5

[Yog]

Mmmm.. good week for me.

Question, should we do a 5 day double points thing for War of the Worlds or just a normal points 3-day?

[Jedi Master Carr]

I figure just 4 day since Monday is the 4th, I am not going into a six day way too much to figure out.

[Yog]

Friday-monday (4-day) sounds good to me :)