Box Office Contest Weekend 8 Batman Weekend

[Jedi Master Carr]

Okay I am going to double the points for the 5 day Batman Gross, it looks like one of the biggest movies of the summer and I think it deserves. That is due Thursday by 9AM the others are three day due by Sat 9am. Good luck.

[CMJ]

Batman Begins - 98.41M

[Jedi Master Carr]

Batman Begins 112.56

[Yog]

Batman Begins 89.02

[Drake Shadowstalker]

Batman Begins - 114.54

[Jedi Master Carr]

Over 15 million for Batman first day, I think that is okay I think some of the reason for lesser numbers is the fact I am not sure if many people knew it was coming out on Wednesday. I expect much bigger numbers on the weekend.

[Liam Jinn]

Oh hell, might as well give it a shot...

Batman Begins - 93.57

[Yog]

It will drop some for thursday, but it should pick up more traffic on friday and saturday. You are probably right people did not know about wednesday release. The lukewarm start does tell me a few things though. Its going to do way less than some people expected. I see some posters at Box Office Mojo are in shock.

Oh, and welcome to Drake and Liam. Hope you stick around. Predicting is fun :)

[Clive Solo]

Yeah me too...

106.32M

[Jedi Master Carr]

Also the Perfect man comes out today as well so keep in that mind. For the rest of the top 5 I am going with
2 Mr and Mrs Smith 25.67
3 Madagascar 10.21
4 Revenge of the Sith 8.76
5 The Longest Yard 7.78

[Yog]

2. Mr and Mrs Smith 28.95
3. Madagascar 9.55
4. Revenge of the Sith 8.22
5. The Longest Yard 7.55

[CMJ]

2. Mr and Mrs Smith 28.51
3. Madagascar 9.41
4. Revenge of the Sith 8.31
5. The Longest Yard 7.62

[Yog]

Friday numbers (estimates from showbiz):

BATMAN BEGINS 15.2 39.4
MR. AND MRS SMITH 8.2 78.7
MADAGASCAR 3.3 139.4
LONGEST YARD THE 2.7 126.4
STAR WARS: EPISODE III - REVENGE OF THE SITH 2.5 341.1
PERFECT MAN, THE 2.2 2.2
ADVENTURES OF SHARK BOY & LAVA GIRL, THE 1.9 19.3
CINDERELLA MAN 1.6 39.9
SISTERHOOD OF THE TRAVELING PANTS, THE 1.2 28.3
Honeymooners, The .9 7.9

[Rutabaga]

Holy box office disappointment, Batman :(

I'd figured $60-75 million for the 3 days, and probably at over $100 million at the end of the weekend, with a cumulative total of maybe $250 million at the end of the summer. At this rate, it will probably be lucky to scrape past $50 million for the 3 days, be nowhere near $100 million at the end of the weekend, and probably won't hit $200 million for the summer.

What happened? :huh

Now this really makes me curious about how WOTW will do.

This really is going to turn out to be one of the worst summers on record, BO-wise. Outside of ROTS, there's been no huge blockbuster. Madagascar, TLY, and Brangelina's movie have done good, solid business, but not enough to turn the summer into a smashing success.

Yikes, does this have something to do with the poll that was released in the last couple of days where the majority of people said they prefer to watch movies at home, rather than seeing them in a movie theater? I just don't understand that...I mean, lots of movies are perfectly fine if you see them at home, but with movies like ROTS, Batman Begins, and WOTW, geez, there's nothing like the experience of seeing them on the big screen with kick-butt stereo sound.

What the heck is Hollywood going to do to change the trend? :huh

[Cat Terrist]

Probably force a price cut at theatres. It's an expensive night out, once you ousually add in drinks, food, travel time etc. Then the actual experience can be foobar'ed by teenagers talking, crying babies etc. Also, home theatre systems are getting impressive, they lose nothing to cinema except when you have big special effects.

The other fact of life Hollywood has to accept is that the DVD is where most of their revenue will have to come from, it's such a great and quality medium. I think most have realised that.

Oh, the other influence I guess is Bit Torrent, which makes it possible to get movies fast and easily. While it's just a protocl and perfectly legal and fine, copyright infringements are all too easy using programs that make use of Bit Torrent. This just means the caual moviegoer can grab a copy and watch. I dont myself, the downloads are usually rubbish in quality.

Theatres have to compete against downloading and DVD's plus all sorts of other things for the entertainment dollar. Now, while big movies will still be about, They'll keep on doing like the trends have been - big first weeks then flare out. I dont see say a Titanic style take ever happening again.

Still, I dont understand how an apparently good movie like Batman Returns can do as it has so far, that's not exactly as I would have expected.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I am hoping people got turned off by the last one and didn't want to see it right away and come in for the good WOM. If it has good legs it could make it pass 200, it can do it I think, will it I have no idea. Worst case it will get pass 170 make in the 180 range. That is enough for a sequel. As for hollywood I think it is the U.S economy. Gas prices here are hurting everything prices in stores are going up it is starting to trickle down and people are making decisions by their wallet and say they aren't going to the movies this weekend.

[Yog]

Although, I would have loved for it to gross more, part of the problem here is expectations, especially among various box office circles (BOM posters have been notorios for hyping the expected movie gross). Personally, I have been a little puzzled for the last 2 months or so why everyone was thinking it would be the biggest movie of the summer. If you asked me 1 year ago about what movies I looked forward to this year the most (except ROTS), I would have replied "Kong" and "War of the Worlds" in that order. Batman had not even registered on my radar at that point.

If youre looking for superhero movies that have a realistic shot at 300M+ result, superman or next spiderman movie is your answer. The awareness level for those are several times multiplied.

Having said that, BB does look like an amazing movie, and I very much look forward to seeing it.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well I think it will have great legs because of the WOM is amazing. Also you are right if you go to BOM it was hyped up way too much, hey I even fell into the trap. I just hope it makes enough for their to be a sequel.

[Rutabaga]

Oh, they'll make a sequel, I think that's pretty much assured. If they don't, it will be fishy...I mean, look at how many severely underperforming movies get sequels greenlighted. Just heard about a sequel to Underworld, of all things, yesterday. So if Batman Begins doesn't merit a sequel, then something just ain't right.

[Yog]

I am pretty sure there will be a sequel. And I think it will have a better gross. Usually, whenever a movie gets a good WOM, the sequel does better or equally good. The opposite is true if there is bad WOM. I feel this may have been the case for some moviegoers this weekend. The uninformed would say to themselves "oh, they made another batman movie. Jeez, did not the previous two suck bad enough allready", without taking into concideration this is actually a whole new generation of Batman movies.

Same with the SW prequels. A lot of people got disappointed with TPM, and it largely affected AOTCs gross. That is even though most people liked AOTC better than TPM.

[Cat Terrist]

Originally posted by Jedi Master Carr
Well I think it will have great legs because of the WOM is amazing. Also you are right if you go to BOM it was hyped up way too much, hey I even fell into the trap. I just hope it makes enough for their to be a sequel.

Reading BOM is about as wothwhile these days as beating one's head agaisnt a brick wall. Ick.

[Rutabaga]

I only go to BOM for the BO numbers, I never venture into the forums. I've heard enough bad things about them that it just doesn't seem worth the effort.

Speaking of the BO numbers, $47 million estimated for Batman Begins. Ouch. But yes, perhaps good WOM will keep it from suffering a greater than 50% drop next weekend. After all, it's only real competition is Herbie Fully Loaded, and that looks like a pukefest. Of course, part of my reaction to it is that I'm sick and tired of Lindsay Lohan >_< , but still, ugh. And Bewitched, which looks cute but isn't going to do much.

The good news is, ROTS didn't drop as much as we might have thought it would this weekend, estimated $9.7 million for the weekend, only a 35% drop. Cumulative is now almost $348 million, so $370-380 million seems quite realistic :).

Well, I'll be off to Batman Begins in a couple of hours, taking my pop to see it for Father's Day, looking forward to it because I know it's going to be good :).

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well if it has good legs it will do fine in the coming weeks. I think it will get past 175 after that I have no idea. Good hold for ROTS it should still make it pass 380, 400 is going to be tough though.

[Rutabaga]

A question that is perhaps silly but I think needs to be asked:

Can any percentage of the less-than-expected weekend grosses of Batman Begins be at all blamed on any kind of Katie Holmes backlash?

[CMJ]

I don't know how many of yall know, but I currently work part time at Nielsen. In addition to the famous TV ratings we also track awareness and interest for the studios(in addition to tabulating the BO). I was told by the head of my department Friday morning that our analysts had told Warners that 75M for the 5 day weekend was what they should expect.

In other words, I'd known I'd overshot for quite sometime. ;) Though when they saw the projections WB mighta been disappointed, you can be sure that when WB says these were within expectations they aren't spinning. WE projected it.

[ReaperFett]

Originally posted by Jinn Fizz
Speaking of the BO numbers, $47 million estimated for Batman Begins. Ouch.

No A-List stars and seen as a sequel to Batman & Robin. $70m in 5 days is good stuff IMO.

[Rutabaga]

Originally posted by ReaperFett
No A-List stars and seen as a sequel to Batman & Robin. $70m in 5 days is good stuff IMO.

True, although it was well-hyped, but perhaps the hype couldn't penetrate beyond the fact that this was seen by many people as being just another Batman movie, when in general the last 2 Batman movies were bombs.

*sigh* It's really too bad, because this is a wonderful Batman movie and deserves to do well. I thought it was great.

[Jedieb]

I didn't make a prediction, but I expected BB to outgross the nipple fest that was B&R's opening weekend. IIRC, that grossed over $50M and then fell like a rock to barely hit $100M. I think the DVD effect has the B.O. on its heels. For goodness sakes, Hitch is coming out on DVD this month. I mentioned that to my wife last week and she replied; "Didn't that JUST come out?" I think more and more people are waiting for film to make it to DVD so they can bask in their home theater goodness. People are spending hundreds and thousands of dollars to get their HTs set up at home. I bet a bunch of people look at a $20 DVD versus a $40 night at the theater as a way to help save some cash after blowing all that money on a HT.

[CMJ]

Theater going definitely has trends. Right now we're in a downward one - and have since 2002(which was a terrific year admissions wise).

I think theaters are going to have to put a halt to prices for a few years until overall inflation catches up a tad. They made the mistake of building too many of the mega movie palaces 5 years or so ago(which caused a huge increase in prices and concessions to pay them off). It came at the same time as the DVD boom so theater going suddenly seemed an unnecassary expense.

[ReaperFett]

$128m worldwide for BB btw.

[Jedi Master Carr]

That is good news. I think Batman will be fine, I think it will be a very leggy movie and hopefully will outgross Batman Forever at least. Also another thing, I think a sequel will outgross this one becuase of the good buzz from this one will help any sequel and the fact the Joker will be appearing I think the combination will make the sequel bigger.

[Yog]

Batman makes ~71M over the 5 day frame. Decent hold for ROTS. Some fairly steep drops for most of the other movies.

Weekend estimates:

1. Batman Begins WB $46,935,000 - 3,858 - $12,165 $71,087,000 $120 / - 1
2. Mr. and Mrs. Smith Fox $27,300,000 -45.8% 3,451 +27 $7,910 $97,961,000 $110 / - 2
3. Madagascar DW $11,100,000 -35.4% 3,533 -396 $3,141 $147,195,000 - / - 4
4. Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith Fox $9,700,000 -34.7% 2,923 -399 $3,318 $347,802,000 $113 / - 5
5. The Longest Yard Par. $8,000,000 -42.4% 3,312 -342 $2,415 $131,905,000 $82 / - 4
6. The Adventures of Shark Boy and Lava Girl (3D) Dim. $6,633,000 -47.3% 2,655 - $2,498 $23,955,000 - / - 2
7. The Perfect Man $5,478,000 - 2,087 - $2,624 $5,478,000 $10 / - 1
8. Cinderella Man $5,233,000 -46.2% 2,610 -210 $2,004 $43,554,000 $88 / -3
9. The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants WB $3,170,000 -44.5% 2,206 -377 $1,436 $30,203,000 $25 / - 3
10. The Honeymooners Par. $2,570,000 -53.6% 1,912 - $1,344 $9,473,000 $25 / - 2

[Jedi Master Carr]

The actuals are out looks like the underestimated two films :)

1 N Batman Begins WB $48,745,440 - 3,858 - $12,634 $72,896,986 $150 / - 1
2 1 Mr. and Mrs. Smith Fox $26,037,023 -48.3% 3,451 +27 $7,544 $96,697,986 $110 / - 2
3 2 Madagascar DW $10,737,325 -37.5% 3,533 -396 $3,039 $146,831,846 - / - 4
4 3 Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith Fox $10,038,498 -32.4% 2,923 -399 $3,434 $348,140,685 $113 / - 5
5 4 The Longest Yard Par. $8,239,853 -40.6% 3,312 -342 $2,487 $132,144,471 $82 / - 4
6 5 The Adventures of Shark Boy and Lava Girl (3D) Dim. $6,692,907 -46.8% 2,655 - $2,520 $24,015,408 - / - 2
7 6 Cinderella Man Uni. $5,572,285 -42.7% 2,610 -210 $2,134 $43,893,695 $88 / - 3
8 N The Perfect Man Uni. $5,300,980 - 2,087 - $2,540 $5,300,980 $10 / - 1
9 7 The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants WB $3,127,232 -45.2% 2,206 -377 $1,417 $30,160,110 $25 / - 3
10 8 The Honeymooners Par. $2,648,330 -52.2% 1,912 - $1,385 $9,551,584 $25 / - 2


First at least the estimates were two million low on Batman, I think that is a sign the movie is going to have some great legs. Second great hold by ROTS it made 10 million which is great, heck it could pass Madagascar next weekend.

[Yog]

Finally some good news for BB and ROTS there :thumbup

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think that drop by ROTS gets it pass 385, heck maybe 390 is possible, if Lucas does IMAX release it would then make it to 400. For Batman I think that is a good sign of decent legs. Hopefully it has good drops the next two weekends if it does it could approach 200.

[Rutabaga]

I'm very glad to see that Batman Begins was underestimated.

And I'm really, really, really glad that ROTS was underestimated by a fair amount. Bodes well for the final gross, methinks.

[ReaperFett]

Apparently, the FX TV station bought the rights for BB for $25m. Sequel is more likely :)

[Jedi Master Carr]

Yeah that helps as well. Also keep in mind that WB will make more money on the DVD sales than in theaters. Great example I read a while back in some fiancial magazine about Warner Brother's earnings. It mentioned that WB made 270 million of DVD sales from Harry Potter 3 in the U.S alone compared to 250 million in theaters. That is huge and I bet most movies act this way. Heck this doesn't even count rentals or look at how well movies sell overseas. The studios are making a killing they can swear poverty all they want but just about every film except the ones like Pluto Nash make money back these days.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Here are the results, I have no idea how it went this way

Winner of #1 movie Master Yoghurt
Winner of #2 movie Jedi Master Carr
Winner of #3 Movie Jedi Master Carr
Winner of #4 Movie Jedi Master Carr
Winner of #5 Movie Jedi Master Carr


Weekend points
Jedi Master Carr 75
Master Yoghurt 75
CMJ 25
Clive Solo 5
Liam Jinn 5
Drake Shadowstalker 5

Contest Totals
Jedi Master Carr 305
Master Yoghurt 275
CMJ 270
Jedieb 95
Clive Solo 5
Liam Jinn 5
Drake Shadowstalker 5

Made one small mistake forgot to reward Yoghurt the 25 points for Batman
Also somebody please check if I messed up I will correct it, I want to show that I am didn't rig it this week so that I could win.

[Yog]

Congrats! This weekend its

Herbie: Fully Loaded 3,301 (on 6/22)

Jun. 24 Theaters
Bewitched 3,000
Land of the Dead 2,000+