Box office Contest week 4 picks due by Thursday 9AMEST for Star Wars

[Jedi Master Carr]

Okay here is the biggest weekend of the summer :)

This weekend we get several double point chances first you get double the points for predicting ROTS 4 day weekend gross. To make things more interesting you can get 20 points for picking the opening day and 15 for picking the 3 day weekend. Got that? So you you make three predictions for Episode 3 and those have to be in before Thursday morning, I figure some estimates might be out by that time. The other four picks you can do after that but before Saturday morning. Now only three day grosses for those, but please keep them seperate that way we don't confuse each other.

[Jedieb]

ROTS

Thursday 41,369,300
Friday 34,543,365
Saturday 44,874,250
Sunday 33,115,000

3 Day 112,156,565
4 Day 153,525,865

[Yog]

Opening day: $42.7M
3 day: $94.4M
4 day: $137.1M

[Jedi Master Carr]

What they hell I might be nuts but I am just going for big numbers
Opening Day 43.42
Opening 4 Day 154.11
Opening 3 Day 110.69
I think all three records might fall this weekend, but that is just going on the early reports from Variety about the advanced ticket sales going like nuts. Plus with the weak boxoffice and nothing out there for young adults I think it will be a huge draw.

Edit I came down some, I think it will beat SM's day record and the 4 day record but fall short of the other.

[Yog]

Man, I would so love if that happens..

[Jedi Master Carr]

I know I would too, I am considering lowering the 3 day as if it opens that high I don't think it will do that, but who knows. Maybe I will keep it heh if I am wrong I can just say I got too excitied heh.

[CMJ]

We have a history of overestimating the SW movies opening weekends so I'm gonna underbid.

Opening Day - 35.81M
Three Day - 101.77M
Four Day - 126.03M

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think opening day will be closer to 40, the question is which side of 40. I would guess anywhere from 38-45. I am basing that on the fact that Fandango said yesterday that most midnight show is sold out and they estimate it here

HOLLYWOOD -- Selling an unprecedented number of advance tickets and sparking huge audience interest in industry tracking, "Star Wars: Episode III -- Revenge of the Sith" storms into theaters tonight at one minute past midnight.
Though 20th Century Fox is maintaining cautious optimism -- and emphasizing the cautious part -- about the bowbow for the finale to George LucasGeorge Lucas's sci-fi epic, many in the industry think "Sith," which is opening at 3,661 theaters with more than 9,000 prints, has the potential to shatter box office records this weekend.

As of Tuesday afternoon, more than 80% of tonight's midnight shows were sold out. "And every time they sell out a midnight show, they add another print," said Fox distribdistrib prexyprexy Bruce Snyder. The studio hasn't tallied all the advance sales -- online ticket service Fandango.com reported that it's selling two "Sith" tixtix per second -- but estimated it at more than $20 million already.

Internationally, Fox distribution execs say advance sales in Europe have been very strong. They note that cooler than usual weather is expected this weekend in Europe and will probably help spur attendance.

All of the midnight shows are sold out in Belgium, where "Sith" opens on Wednesday along with France.

In the most recent tracking reports, "Star Wars" had a massive 45% unaided awareness -- that is, nearly half of those polled were aware of the movie's opening without being prompted. And more than half of all males, both over and under 25 years old, said the pic was their first-choice title this weekend. About a quarter of women said the same thing.

The massive interest has led to many midnight screenings already selling outso chains are forging plans to play the pic until dawn .

AMC spokesman Pam Blasé said some of the 200 theaters in the chain have already skedded 3:30 a.m. showtimes and added, "We're already encouraging our theaters to add 6:30."

At both AMC and Regal, "Sith" has set advance ticket sales records. "There's a strong desire to be among the first to see 'Star Wars,'" said Regal reprep Dick Westerling.

Fandango said its advance sales were running 60% ahead of 2003's "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King," which counted $124 million in its first five days.

"It is gigantic," said Fandango chief Art Levitt. "For those who are waiting for the opening bell to ring on summer, well it's rung loud and clear."

Since Fandango started selling "Sith" tix last month, they have accounted for a majority of all sales on the site. On April 20, Fandango reported that "Star Wars" represented 82% of its sales; this week the title has accounted for 98% of all buyers.

Midnight shows in GothamGotham, L.A., Chicago, Washington D.C., Seattle, San Francisco and Boston were sold out as of Tuesday.

To get into the record books, "Sith" will have to post some lofty numbers. The biggest single-day gross was set on this weekend last year by "Shrek 2," with $44.8 million on Saturday.

"The Matrix Reloaded""The Matrix Reloaded" set the mark for the largest four-day opening with $134.3 million when it bowed May 15, 2003. And the biggest three-day figure is still "Spider-Man's" $114.8 million set on May 3, 2002.

Still, other execs are rooting for "Star Wars."

"The whole industry is looking forward to huge numbers from 'Star Wars.' We're looking for this to really jumpstart the summer for all of us," said DreamWorks distrib prexy Jim Tharp, who is opening "Madagascar" next week. "After looking at tracking and talking to exhibitors, we think the movie is going to break the four-day all-time record."

Snyder, though, said, "I would be thrilled to see something comparable to 'Episode II,'" and said the recent weakness at the box office may put the records out of reach. "With the softness of the market, my expectations are realistic."

Online betting site PinnacleSports.com has been taking bets on whether "Sith" makes it to the record books and has found most are betting it will be the new champ. Odds on it breaking "Spider-Man's" mark have dropped from 6 to 1 when the site started taking bets to 11 to 5 this week.

About that 20 million do they mean 20 million dollars or 20 million tickets??? If it was 20 million tickets that would be like 150-200 million dollars. I am guessing they mean 20 million dollars worth of tickets but I am not really sure.

[Yog]

You know, when I read those kinds of reports, I am starting to think I may be going too low. The single day record set by Shrek 2 looks very lose. But I will try to be firm and stick to my prediction. I always tend to overpredict the SW movies.

[Jedi Master Carr]

The question is are most of the fans buying online? There is so much we don't know. Really it is hard to say, it could really make anwhere from 35-50 opening day (with 50 and 35 being long shots imo I am guessing 38-45).

[Yog]

If you are going to be extreme about it, you might as well think about it as this:


Fandango said its advance sales were running 60% ahead of 2003's "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King," which counted $124 million in its first five days

ROTK opening day: $34.45M
34.45 x 0.60 + 34.45 = 55.12M

So basically, ROTS will make 55M on the opening day.. ;)

[Jedi Master Carr]

LOL well we could only hope. You seem some of that could be more people are using Fandango then before I don't think that is all of it but maybe a 1/3 of the reason. I am still thinking somewhere around 40 but I would love to be surprised.

[Jedieb]

Looks like Carr had the highest numbers for opening day. Way to go JMC. And his 4 day totals are a bit higher than mine. I think he's going to take them both.

[Yog]

ROTK opening day: $34.45M
34.45 x 0.60 + 34.45 = 55.12M

So basically, ROTS will make 55M on the opening day..

Man, why did I not use that calculation when predicting :rolleyes

[Jedi Master Carr]

LOL Yoghurt, hey even I was off by 7 million. I was closer with my orginial guess heh. Still I think it will do closer to 155 for the 4 days then 160 range.
Also you can go ahead and make the rest of the top five though the numbers for them sure won't look great

2 Monster-in-law 15.42
3 Kicking and Screaming 13.24
4 Crash 7.11
5 Kingdom of Heaven 6.44

[CMJ]

2. Monster in Law - 16.03M
3. Kicking and Screaming - $12.50M
4. Crash - 6.52M
5. Unleashed - 5.52M

[Yog]

2. Monster in Law - 14.88M
3. Kicking and Screaming - $11.88M
4. Crash - 5.88M
5. Unleashed - 4.88M

[Jedieb]

Crap, I never got around to getting guesses in for the rest of the top 5. Ughh.

[Yog]

When yoiu compete with The Devil, you gotta do better than that :evil (manical laugh)



;)

[Yog]

Weekend estimates (friday-sunday)

1 N Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith Fox $108,500,000 - 3,661 - $29,636 $158,500,000 $113 / - 1
2 1 Monster-in-Law NL $14,350,000 -37.9% 3,424 - $4,191 $44,173,000 $43 / - 2
3 2 Kicking and Screaming Uni. $10,531,000 -47.8% 3,470 +15 $3,034 $34,006,000 $45 / - 2
4 5 Crash Lions $5,500,000 -21.7% 1,905 +29 $2,887 $27,603,000 - / - 3
5 3 Unleashed Focus $3,841,000 -64.8% 1,962 +5 $1,957 $17,567,000 $45 / - 2
6 4 Kingdom of Heaven Fox $3,350,000 -65.2% 2,808 -411 $1,193 $41,031,000 $130 / - 3
7 6 House of Wax WB $3,159,000 -51.9% 2,766 -345 $1,142 $26,783,000 $40 / - 3
8 8 The Interpreter Uni. $2,802,000 -39.0% 2,164 -438 $1,294 $65,295,000 $80 / - 5
9 7 The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy BV $2,006,000 -60.3% 2,211 -559 $907 $46,854,000 $50 / - 4
10 10 Mindhunters Dim. $909,000 -52.4% 1,040 - $874 $3,465,000 - / - 2

[Yog]

Jedi Master Carr asked me to do the points for this weekend due to lack of net access for some days, so here they are.

Weekend Actuals
ROTS 4-day: $158,449,700
ROTS Opening day: $50,013,859

3-day weekend (May 20-22)
1. Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith $108,435,841
2. Monster-in-Law $14,350,134
3. Kicking and Screaming $10,721,715
4. Crash $5,546,006
5. Unleashed $4,123,556

Winners
ROTS 4-day: Jedi Master Carr (154.11) - 50 points
ROTS Opening day: Jedi Master Carr (43.42) - 20 points

Weekend winners (3-day)
#1 Jedi Master Carr (110.69) - 15 points
#2 Master Yoghurt (14.88) - 20 points
#3 Master Yoghurt (11.88) - 15 points
#4 Master Yoghurt (5.88) - 10 points
#5 Master Yoghurt (4.88) - 5 points


Points summary week 4
Jedi Master Carr 105
Master Yoghurt 75
CMJ 25

Congrats to Jedi Master Carr for some accurate ROTS predictions. Well done :)

(Due to the reset points thing, I am currently not doing contest total with the 3 first weeks, as me and Carr would just be in a bigger lead..)

[Jedi Master Carr]

Thank you Yoghurt, yeah my net was down all weekend but I finally got it back.