Guild Awards

[CMJ]

The industry gives us tea leaves as to what what oscar might say every year with the Guild Noms and awards. Well the 2 big ones have been handed out already - the producers Guild and the Director's Guild.

Oscar pundits are now confused. The Aviator won the PGA last week cementing it's BP frontunner status...or so we thought. Last night Clint Eastwood won a shocker over Martin Scorcese though. The DGA used to never ever be wrong(they've only missed like 6 times in over 55 years or something), but their track record has been shaky lately(they missed Soderburgh, and Polanski in just the last four or five years). The PGA doesn't have as long of a track record but it's results have matched Best Picture about 80% of the time.

Are we really in line for a Pic/Director split? It rarely used to happen, but it's happened alot lately...every other year for like the last 6. I think it might be even more of a slap in the face for Aviator to win without him than for the film to lose both top prizes. MDB has just become the frontrunner for both IMHO - but it's too close to call. I need to see what the SAG Ensemble goes to. If it goes to Sideways we might have a repeat of 2000 when CTHD, Traffic, & Gladiator basically split all the awards between them.

[Yog]

It would be funny if all the experts were wrong and neither Aviator, MDB or Sideways make it, and instead Ray wins best picture. I mean, Jamie Foxx was amazing playing Ray Charles, so if he wins a best actor award, maybe also a best picture :p

Possible upset special: Eastwood wins for diecting, Ray wins best picture + actor and Aviator ends up with none of the big awards..

[CMJ]

No way does Ray win BP. I could see it scoring more than just Actor though. Here's a thought..if Foxx wins for Collateral early in the evening - Eastwood takes BA, and Aviator takes the top 2 awards.

[Yog]

It would be interesting if Jamie Foxx won for both Collateral and Ray.

I dont know, just getting increasingly bad vibes about Aviator for some reason. Personally liked both Sideways, MDB, and Ray better than Aviator, so maybe its just me. Even though Aviator is technically brilliant, interesting character play and just great cinematography in general, it feels a little "cold" compared to the other ones. Thats never a good sign. Heck, I recently saw Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, enjoyed that more than Aviator, and its not even nominated for BP. I was very impressed and enjoyed Ray btw, maybe liked it even better than MDB.

[CMJ]

Well you saying you thought ESOTSM was better than The Aviator is no black mark in my book. I think Gondry's film is the finest I've seen in several years(at least as far back as 1999).

I think you are letting you personal feelings cloud your judgement a bit on Scorcese's film though. It's kind of natural though, I tend to overrate chances of films I really dig(I had ESOTSM in my Best Pic predictions till about mid December).

If I were to rank the pics nominated for Picture I'd say...

The Aviator
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
Sideways
Ray

The fourth and fifth spots are really close. Ask me tommorrow I might flip'em. I like this years group alot, but I do think it's one of the weaker ones of recent years. The top 3 all made my year end top 10 list. The other two were honorable mentions.

[Yog]

Youre probably right. If I think about it rationally, I am not seriously expecting Ray or Sideways to win. It certainly does look like a close race between Aviator and MDB, especially concidering the amount of buzz. Like I said in an earlier post, its a two horse race between those two really.

If I try putting my personal preferences aside, this is how I rank the BP candidates movies in terms how likely they are to win BP right now:

Best Picture
1. Million Dollar Baby
2. Aviator
3. Sideways
4. Ray
5. Finding Neverland

I think the group is decent overall, because there is no movie there I can say is undeserving to be nominated (although I would personally preferred to see ESOTSM in that group instead of Finding Neverland for instance). One other movie that surprised me this year was Spiderman 2, it was better than I thought it would be, but the Accademy usually nominates drama. Its maybe not the strongest group in recent years, but I dont think its the weakest either (2001). Usually, there are one or two movies which I just straight disagree with. Last year, it was Master & Commander.

If I were to indicate a weakness, its not about the the best picture nominees, but the movie releases this year as a whole. Earlier today, I read through the Rotten Tomatoes awards for 2004. And I said to myself: "Good grief, there was a lot of junk and mediocre stuff released this year!".

Have a look here for yourself, and view through the different categories:
http://www.rottentomatoes.com/features/rtawards/

There were like one, maybe 2 decent horror movies this year (rest was awful), lots of mediocre comedies although a few were good, 4 good action movies, one good sci-fi/fantasy, 2 good thrillers and a handful good/great dramas, mainly those being nominated. But if you look at what was produced in terms of small budget stuff, in particular documentaries and foreign language films, its a whole different situation. This was a GREAT year for stuff being released/produced outside of Hollywood.

The problem is lack of creativity and innovation. Hollywood has come to the stage where they would rather do something that is done before, tried formulas that are known to sell, instead of risk trying something new. In other words, theire running out of ideas.

[Dutchy]

What about Swank's chance on winning her 2nd Oscar?

[CMJ]

People have been saying Hollywood was running out of ideas since about the 1940's Yoghurt. ;) Some years are just better or worse than others.

I think your current ranking of liklihood is about right. I don't know which film is really leading, but it's definitley between MDB and Aviator(hard to pick against the PGA/Globe winner...also impossible to not pick the DGA winner). This might be like Gladiator's win in 2000 which most Oscar watchers believe was won on the backs of the technical branches.

Does Aviator get the techies in masse?

[CMJ]

Originally posted by Dutchy
What about Swank's chance on winning her 2nd Oscar?

Pretty good I'd say. It's not quite in the bag however.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Yeah I say it is a close race based on what you have said. Honestly, I am not too sure what to root for, I haven't seen a single one of the BP nominees. Although, I will probably see Ray next week when it comes out on DVD. So I won't have a good opinion until later in the year. Wish I could see a few but unfortuntely don't have the time right now :\
As for you assesment on the year yeah it has been a weak year in some aspects but I think it was no worse really then last year. Now I agree on Sci-fi Fantasy really only one really good film this year in Harry Potter the rest of the sci-fi/fantasy films weren't really that good.

[CMJ]

I'm planning on seeing Vera Drake tommorrow so I can see where Staunton and Leigh line up in their respective categories. Even though Leigh is not nominated for the WGA - I believe he will probably win Best Original Screenplay at the Oscars. Kaufman is turning into the Scorcese of screenwriters. :p

[CMJ]

Screen Actor Guild Winners...

Best Actor: Jamie Foxx, Ray
Best Actress: Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby
Best Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett, The Aviator
Best Supporting Actor: Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby
Ensemble: Sideways

I think the 4 indivdual awards might all match Oscar. Sideways winning Ensemble muddles the Picture race even further.

[CMJ]

The British Academy Awards(too lazy to start a new thread for them).

Best Film: The Aviator
Best Director: Mike Leigh, Vera Drake
Best Actor: Jamie Foxx, Ray
Best Actress: Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake
Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett, The Aviator
Supporting Actor: Clive Owen, Closer
Original Screenplay: Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Adapted Screenplay: Sideways
Film Music: The Motorcycle Diaries
Best Hair and Makeup: The Aviator
Best Costumes: Vera Drake
Short Film: The Banker
Carl Foreman award: Amma Asante, A Way of Life
Best Cinematography - Collateral
Best Editing - Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Best Production Design - The Aviator
Best Costume Design - Vera Drake
Best Sound - Ray
Best Achievement in Special Visual Effects - The Day After Tomorrow

[Jedi Master Carr]

Forgot the Orange award which Harry Potter won :p of course that has no barring on anything. I have no clue what DAT won SFX their effects were horrible to me, especially the cgi wolves they looked as real as stuff in video games. One thing I have noticed I have no clue who is going to win the Best supporting actor and actress. It obviously comes down to Morgan Freeman vs Clive Owen and Natalie Portman vs Cate Blanchett. I am routing for Freeman and Portman but it wouldn't surprise me to go the other way for both.

[CMJ]

Over the weekend here were the Guild Winners.

ART DIRECTION GUILD
Period/Fantasy - Lemony Snickets a Series of Unfortunate Events
Contemporary - The Terminal

AMERICAN SOCIETY OF CINEMOTAGRAPJY
A Very Long Engagement

[CMJ]

Visual Effects Society - not sure this sheds light on anything given ALL the awards the Guild handed out.
****

OUTSTANDING CREATED ENVIRONMENT IN A LIVE ACTION MOTION PICTURE

SPIDERMAN-2 – NYC STREET, NIGHT
Dan Abrams
David Emery
Andrew Nawrot
John Hart

OUTSTANDING SPECIAL EFFECTS IN SERVICE TO VISUAL EFFECTS IN A MOTION PICTURE

THE AVIATOR
Robert Spurlock
Richard Stutsman
Matthew Gratzner
R. Bruce Steinheimer

OUTSTANDING MODELS AND MINATURES IN A MOTION PICTURE

THE AVIATOR – XF11 CRASH
Matthew Gratzner
Scott Schneider
Adam Gelbart
Leigh-Alexandra Jacob

OUTSTANDING COMPOSITING IN A MOTION PICTURE

SPIDER-MAN 2 – TRAIN SEQUENCE
Colin Drobnis
Greg Derochie
Blaine Kennison
Kenny Lam

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY AN ANIMATED CHARACTER IN AN ANIMATED MOTION PICTURE

THE INCREDIBLES – BOB PARR/MR. INCREDIBLE
Craig T. Nelson
Bill Wise
Bill Sheffler
Bolhem Bouchiba

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY AN ANIMATED CHARACTER IN A LIVE ACTION MOTION PICTURE

HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN – HIPPOGRIFF CHARACTER
Michael Eames
David Lomax
Felix Balbas
Pablo Grillo

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR OR ACTRESS IN A VISUAL EFFECTS FILM

SPIDER-MAN 2
Alfred Molina

BEST SINGLE VISUAL EFFECT OF THE YEAR

THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW – TIDAL WAVE
Karen Goulekas
Mike Chambers
Chris Horvath
Matthew Butler

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING VISUAL EFFECTS IN A MOTION PICTURE

THE AVIATOR
Rob Legato
Ron Ames
Matthew Gratzner
Pete Travers

OUTSTANDING VISUAL EFFECTS IN A VISUAL EFFECTS DRIVEN MOTION PICTURE

HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN
Roger Guyett
Tim Burke
Theresa Corrao
Emma Norton

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well Spiderman 2, Harry Potter and Aviator split the major awards. Since Aviator didn't get nominated its between Spiderman 2 and Harry Potter. I think Harry Potter should win because the effects were better especially Buckbeak and the Dementors but Spiderman could very well win because it is more popular.

[CMJ]

Cinema Audio Society - The Aviator

Writers Guild of America
Best Adapted Screenplay - Sideways
Best Original Screenplay - Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

[CMJ]

Editor's Guild Winner - The Aviator
Costume Guild Winner - Lemony Snicket's