Oscar Nominations...

[CMJ]

Some surprises, but alot of what was expected. I'll post comprehensve thoughts later.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Don Cheadle - HOTEL RWANDA
Johnny Depp - FINDING NEVERLAND
Leonardo DiCaprio - THE AVIATOR
Clint Eastwood - MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Jamie Foxx - RAY

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Alan Alda - THE AVIATOR
Thomas Haden Church - SIDEWAYS
Jamie Foxx - COLLATERAL
Morgan Freeman - MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Clive Owen - CLOSER

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Annette Bening - BEING JULIA
Catalina Sandino Moreno - MARIA FULL OF GRACE
Imelda Staunton - VERA DRAKE
Hilary Swank - MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Kate Winslet - ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Cate Blanchett - THE AVIATOR
Laura Linney - KINSEY
Virginia Madsen - SIDEWAYS
Sophie Okonedo - HOTEL RWANDA
Natalie Portman - CLOSER

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

THE INCREDIBLES
SHARK TALE
SHREK 2

ART DIRECTION

THE AVIATOR
FINDING NEVERLAND
LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA
A VERY LONG ENGAGEMENT

CINEMATOGRAPHY

THE AVIATOR
HOUSE OF FLYING DAGGERS
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST
THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA
A VERY LONG ENGAGEMENT

COSTUME DESIGN

THE AVIATOR
FINDING NEVERLAND
LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
RAY
TROY

DIRECTING

THE AVIATOR
MILLION DOLLAR BABY
RAY
SIDEWAYS
VERA DRAKE

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

BORN INTO BROTHELS
THE STORY OF THE WEEPING CAMEL
SUPER SIZE ME
TUPAC: RESURRECTION
TWIST OF FAITH

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

AUTISM IS A WORLD
THE CHILDREN OF LENINGRADSKY
HARDWOOD
MIGHTY TIMES: THE CHILDREN'S MARCH
SISTER ROSE'S PASSION

FILM EDITING

THE AVIATOR
COLLATERAL
FINDING NEVERLAND
MILLION DOLLAR BABY
RAY

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

AS IT IS IN HEAVEN
THE CHORUS
DOWNFALL
THE SEA INSIDE
YESTERDAY

MAKEUP

LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST
THE SEA INSIDE

MUSIC (SCORE)

FINDING NEVERLAND
HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN
LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST
THE VILLAGE

MUSIC (SONG)

"Accidentally In Love" - SHREK 2
"Al Otro Lado Del Río" - THE MOTORCYCLE DIARIES
"Believe" - THE POLAR EXPRESS
"Learn To Be Lonely" - THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA
"Look To Your Path (Vois Sur Ton Chemin)" - THE CHORUS

BEST PICTURE

THE AVIATOR
FINDING NEVERLAND
MILLION DOLLAR BABY
RAY
SIDEWAYS

SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)

BIRTHDAY BOY
GOPHER BROKE
GUARD DOG
LORENZO
RYAN

SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)

EVERYTHING IN THIS COUNTRY MUST
LITTLE TERRORIST
7:35 IN THE MORNING
TWO CARS, ONE NIGHT
WASP

SOUND EDITING

THE INCREDIBLES
THE POLAR EXPRESS
SPIDER-MAN 2

SOUND MIXING

THE AVIATOR
THE INCREDIBLES
THE POLAR EXPRESS
RAY
SPIDER-MAN 2

VISUAL EFFECTS

HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN
I, ROBOT
SPIDER-MAN 2

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

BEFORE SUNSET
FINDING NEVERLAND
MILLION DOLLAR BABY
THE MOTORCYCLE DIARIES
SIDEWAYS

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

THE AVIATOR
ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND
HOTEL RWANDA
THE INCREDIBLES
VERA DRAKE

[Yog]

Hmmm.. no surprises there

[CMJ]

Mike Leigh being nominated for directing Vera Drake was a stunner. Polar Express racking up technical noms but not Animated Feature...shocking. Alan Alda getting in with viirtually zero precursor support, a surprise. TPOTC getting 3 nods?

Several other surprises too.

[Yog]

I'll admit, I know nothing about Vera Drake, so that was surprising yeah. But other than that.. TPOTC only got 2 nominations, music and sfx? And theire both technical awards, so not really that shocking. SFX I would say was expected even. And Polar Express is not as good as the 3 animated nominees, just interesting from a techincal level, for example how they captured actors movement and turned it into animated characters. I dont think any awards for Aviator could be surprising, its a snowball effect when they get many nominations.

If I had to pick a surprise, it was House of Flying Daggers NOT getting a best foreign picture nod.

[CMJ]

I thought TPOTC would recieve at most one(for make-up)...it got three nods. Troy getting in for costumes is a big surprise. Mick Jagger's song from Alfie was the favorite to WIN and it doesn't even get a nomination.

Shark's Tale was one of the weaker films of the whole year. Well...that might be a bit much, but still I can't believe it got in over PE - especially with the nods that PE got.

HOFD was a surprise...it only got 1 technical nod, and I was certain it would rack up a few more(plus Foreign). The airport terminal in The Terminal was considered an astonishing achievement..and the ADG nominated it, so I was pretty surprised it was snubbed too.

Actually the biggest shock of the morning to me might be Collateral getting ignored in Cinematography. Most folks thought that was its one definite nomination.

[Yog]

Collateral not getting the nod for cinematography does not surprise me at all really. Its neither epic or visually grand. I mean, a large portion of the movie takes place inside a taxi cab and on the streets of LA.

and about Troy.. I thought the costumes in that movie was awesome. Imagine the work of making thousands of ancient Greek/Trojan armor and clothes.

I have not seen Terminal yet, although I intend to, so I cant comment on that.

As a side note, I am a little unexcited overall by the movies nominated this year. Nothing that strikes me as groundbreaking or innovative. For the most part, these movies neither made a great impact or timeless impression on me. While the movies are generally "good" with moments of being "great" (except Passion of the Christ which I think was terrible), the whole thing feels like business as usual.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I was a little surprised about Eastwood getting best actor since he got snubbed at the Globes. I am happy that Harry Potter got two nominations in Best Visual Effects and Best score. I am not sure how I Robot got up there it beat out DAT and Sky Captain. Sky Captain must have got snubbed because of it being a flop that is the only thing I can think of. And I guess I shouldn't be surprised that Williams got another nod. I was shocked to see TPOC get on in that category. And who would have thought the Village and Lemony Snicket would sneak into getting nominated. Who won the Globe? As I recall it was Shore but I don't think he did any of those films. Right now I say Finding Neverland wins but who knows at this point, I would like to see Williams win again that Harry Potter score was one of his best, IMO.

[Dutchy]

Bruno Ganz as Adolf Hitler not being nominated for Best Actor is a joke. Understandable, controverse-wise, but still.

[CMJ]

Not enough people saw the movie Dutchy. Besides there were plenty of guys left off the Best Actor list who deserved a nod. The category had about 25 conceivable nominees this year.

[Dutchy]

Enough saw it to nominate it for Best Foreign Movie, so why not for Best Actor?

[Callomas Savoc]

Because there are disconnects between categories like BFM and BP, just as there are for Best Documentary and BP, as Michael Moore discovered.

[CMJ]

Originally posted by Dutchy
Enough saw it to nominate it for Best Foreign Movie, so why not for Best Actor?

If I remember correctly the Foreign Film panel(that nominates the films) has about 200 members. The Academy membership is over 6 thousand. You do the math.

[Yog]

So basically, most members of the Foreign Film panel saw the movie, while those in the panel nominating actor did not.

[CMJ]

This is the most current breakdown of Academy membership that I can find.

AMPAS Breakdown (2002):
5,803 Total voters

1,298 Actors
465 Producers
433 Executives
403 Writers
416 Sound
365 Public relations
366 Art directors
372 Directors
366 Members-at-large
307 Shorts
241 Music composers, lyricists
239 Visual effects
222 Film editors
182 Cinematographers
128 Documentarians

Each branch nominates their own. Like..the actors nominate actors, directors likewise with directors. The entire Academy nominates for BP. They also all vote on all the winners.

You see there are no foreign film people on this list. Basically you have to ask to be on it and agree to watch all the prospective nominees from the various countries. Like I said, I remember reading an article about a year ago that said there were only about 200 of those folks. They're probably all PR ppl too - since they can't nominate anything other than BP anyways. :p

[Yog]

Very interesting thanks :)

Here is a comparison of the studios and how many nominations they got. Only listing those having 4 or more. As you can see, Miramax have been dominating for the last few years. What makes this fact especially fascinating, they have been ranking low on the market share list for years, not even making the top 5, yet still they win so many nominations year after year. In 2004 for instance, they only had a 4% market share putting them at a lowly 10th spot. In 2003 it was 4.4% for 8th, 2002 it was 4.2% at 9th, and in 2001 it was 7.5% at 7th spot.

Warner seem to do pretty well too nominations wise, especially if you concider they own New Line and are thus practically the same company (Time Warner/New Line Cinema).


Oscar nominations per studio

2001
Miramax 14
New Line 14
Universal 9
Buena Vista 8
Fox 8
Warner Bros. 8
USA Films 8


2002
Miramax 31 (!)
Focus 11
Dreamworks 10
Paramount 10
New Line 8
Sony 6
Fox 4
Buena Vista 3
Sony Classics 3


2003
Miramax 14
New Line 11
Warner Bros. 11
Fox 10
Buena Vista 10
Universal 7
Focus 6
Fox Searchlight 4
Lions Gate 4
Sony Classics 3
DreamWorks 3


2004
Miramax 20
Warner Bros. 16
Fine Line 6
Fox Searchlight 6
Universal 6
DreamWorks 5
Sony Sony 5
Buena Vista 5
Paramount 5
Focus 4
Warner Independent Pictures 3
Newmarket 3
United Artists 3

(Btw, I am not sure what happened to Universal lately, as they seemed to drop below par on the frequency of nominations. Perhaps they stopped buying academy votes and just focused making movies or something.. ;))



Perhaps more interesting is this years statistic of best picture nominees and their current domestic gross. Amazingly, none have more than $100M so far. Will this be a new trend? I am not sure if its an indicator of the american audience taste of movies, the academy's taste or the questionable quality level of this years box office hits. Maybe its a combination of all 3 factors:

2004 Best Picture Nominees & Grosses
Ray $73,112,450
The Aviator $59,214,000
Sideways $32,839,188
Finding Neverland $32,538,331
Million Dollar Baby $8,748,129



And finally, a list of the top movies in terms of nominations. I am very curious to find out what box office effect the Oscar nominations will have on Vera Drake. A movie probably very few have seen or heard about until now (~$2M gross).

2004 top movies in # of nominations
The Aviator 11
Finding Neverland 7
Million Dollar Baby 7
Ray 6
Sideways 5
Lemony Snicket's.. 4
The Incredibles 4
Hotel Rwanda 3
The Passion of the Christ 3
Vera Drake 3
The Phantom of the Opera 3
The Polar Express 3
Spider-Man 2 3

[CMJ]

I think both Aviator and MDB will make near(or over) a 100M. MDB expands..this week and Marty's movie has been plugging away.

[Jedieb]

I'm kind of glad Polar Express didn't get an animation nod. I didn't think it was all that good. My son is watching Sky Captain for the 3rd day in a row right now. It certainly looks impressive, but like someone mentioned, it's poor domestic and international numbers probably hurt it's chances.

[LightKnight]

Originally posted by CMJ
This is the most current breakdown of Academy membership that I can find.

AMPAS Breakdown (2002):
5,803 Total voters

1,298 Actors
465 Producers
433 Executives
403 Writers
416 Sound
365 Public relations
366 Art directors
372 Directors
366 Members-at-large
307 Shorts
241 Music composers, lyricists
239 Visual effects
222 Film editors
182 Cinematographers
128 Documentarians

Each branch nominates their own. Like..the actors nominate actors, directors likewise with directors. The entire Academy nominates for BP. They also all vote on all the winners.

You see there are no foreign film people on this list. Basically you have to ask to be on it and agree to watch all the prospective nominees from the various countries. Like I said, I remember reading an article about a year ago that said there were only about 200 of those folks. They're probably all PR ppl too - since they can't nominate anything other than BP anyways. :p Are you saying that roughly 6,000 people decide the Oscar's ?

[CMJ]

Yes, why...more of less than you thought?

[LightKnight]

lots less.

[CMJ]

Interesting...back in the day I always thought it was alot less. Like just acouple hundred.

[LightKnight]

It’s just seems strange too me that so few decide what is supposed to be the best.:\


But what do I know, I’d take Freddy vs. Jason over anything nominated this year :p

[Jedi Master Carr]

You might be thinking of the Globes I think less than 100 people vote on them. About the box office if nothing breaks 100 it will be the first time since 96 that we didn't have a Oscar nominated film over 100 that was when the English Patient won (that was sure bad year still can't believe a forgetable film like that won).

[CMJ]

No I wasn't thinking of the Globes...but when I was younger I did think there was only a few folks that voted on the Oscars. Like the HFPA..which only has like 90 members give or take.

I still have some movies I need to see, but I started my annual Oscar cram session today with Closer. I try to see everything that's up for anything. Still have a few more to catch up on. ;)

[Jedi Master Carr]

Oh I meant Lightknight :) I haven't seen any of the nominees, I will end up watching them all probably on DVD.

[Yog]

I watched all the best picture nominees + closer, collateral, house of flying daggers, Troy, Passion, Spiderman 2, I Robot and the animated ones. Mostly, whats left for me to see are the foreign language movies and a few select movies I have yet to get around to see. I probably wont bother watching much of the documentaries and the shorts, except Story of the weeping camel, which I have been meaning to watch when I had the chance. The movies I will probably watch next are Hotel Rwanda and Downfall.

Btw, I wonder why Garden State did not get any nominations. There is also this Korean movie "Summer, winter, spring.." that I feel really deserved a nomination, its perhaps the most cinematically beatiful film I have seen all year. Very moving, mysterious and powerful, makes you ponder the meaning of life. I guess the competition in the foreign film category must be really strong when neither that or HOFD could make it. There was also a Norwegian candidate "Hawaii Oslo", which received excellent reviews, but could not quite make the cut.

Btw, for those who have been thinking about watching House of Flying Daggers, I really recommend it. Its better IMO than Hero and Crouching tiger, movies which I also really liked. Apart from the amazing martial arts (the bullet time stunts are more insane than ever) and the jawdropping cinematographic beauty, it got a good story and great acting. The wire string trickery is less obvious somehow, its amazing yet less surreal than its predecessors. Its just very well done. I love asian movies.. :)

[CMJ]

Ones I still have to see....

Being Julia
Maria Full of Grace
Vera Drake
Lemony Snicket's a Series of Unfortunate Events
The Phantom of the Opera
A Very Long Engagement
The Polar Express

Plus most of the docs, the foreign nominees and shorts(they usually do play the shorts for a few days around here..I just have to keep an eye out).

[Lilaena De'Ville]

Lemony Snicket's a Series of Unfortunate Events

I saw this a few days ago - it was delightful, and certainly well deserving of the wardrobe and art direction nominations. And score as well, right? Anyway, it was a great kids film.

[CMJ]

Preliminary Predictions...reserve the right to change my mind in the next three days. I'll probably also eventually post analysis.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Jamie Foxx - RAY

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Morgan Freeman - MILLION DOLLAR BABY

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Hilary Swank - MILLION DOLLAR BABY

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Cate Blanchett - THE AVIATOR

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
THE INCREDIBLES

ART DIRECTION
THE AVIATOR

CINEMATOGRAPHY
THE AVIATOR

COSTUME DESIGN
THE AVIATOR

DIRECTING
MILLION DOLLAR BABY

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
SUPER SIZE ME

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
THE CHILDREN OF LENINGRADSKY

FILM EDITING
THE AVIATOR

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
THE SEA INSIDE

MAKEUP
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST

MUSIC (SCORE)
FINDING NEVERLAND

MUSIC (SONG)
"Believe" - THE POLAR EXPRESS

BEST PICTURE
THE AVIATOR

SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
GOPHER BROKE

SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
7:35 IN THE MORNING

SOUND EDITING
SPIDER-MAN 2

SOUND MIXING
RAY

VISUAL EFFECTS
SPIDER-MAN 2

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
SIDEWAYS

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
VERA DRAKE

[Yog]

And here are mine, mostly the same, with a few differences :)

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Jamie Foxx - RAY

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Morgan Freeman - MILLION DOLLAR BABY

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Hilary Swank - MILLION DOLLAR BABY

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Virginia Madsen - SIDEWAYS

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
THE INCREDIBLES

ART DIRECTION
THE AVIATOR

CINEMATOGRAPHY
THE AVIATOR

COSTUME DESIGN
THE AVIATOR

DIRECTING
MILLION DOLLAR BABY

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
SUPER SIZE ME

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
SISTER ROSE'S PASSION

FILM EDITING
THE AVIATOR

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
THE SEA INSIDE

MAKEUP
LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS

MUSIC (SCORE)
FINDING NEVERLAND

MUSIC (SONG)
"Accidentally In Love" - SHREK 2

BEST PICTURE
MILLION DOLLAR BABY

SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
GOPHER BROKE

SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
EVERYTHING IN THIS COUNTRY MUST

SOUND EDITING
SPIDER-MAN 2

SOUND MIXING
RAY

VISUAL EFFECTS
SPIDER-MAN 2

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
SIDEWAYS

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND

[Jedi Master Carr]

Here are mine. Some of these like picking Portman and Harry Potter in VFX are more personal so I probably will lose those.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Jamie Foxx - RAY

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Morgan Freeman - MILLION DOLLAR BABY

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Hilary Swank - MILLION DOLLAR BABY


ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Natalie Portman - CLOSER

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

THE INCREDIBLES

ART DIRECTION

THE AVIATOR


CINEMATOGRAPHY

THE AVIATOR


COSTUME DESIGN

THE AVIATOR

DIRECTING

MILLION DOLLAR BABY


DOCUMENTARY FEATURE


SUPER SIZE ME

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

SISTER ROSE'S PASSION

FILM EDITING

COLLATERAL

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

THE SEA INSIDE

MAKEUP

THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST


MUSIC (SCORE)

HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN

MUSIC (SONG)

"Accidentally In Love" - SHREK 2


BEST PICTURE

MILLION DOLLAR BABY


SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)

LORENZO


SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)

LITTLE TERRORIST


SOUND EDITING

SPIDER-MAN 2

SOUND MIXING

SPIDER-MAN 2

VISUAL EFFECTS

HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)


SIDEWAYS

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND

[Yog]

I got 17/24 right, thats pretty good yeah? :)

I am happy with my picks except for best supporting actress (hoped for someone else to win, even though Blanchett was admittedly the favorite). The shorts were a total bingo because theire so unpredictable, and I had not seen any of them. Would probably have better chance rolling a dice on those.