100 Million Dollar Movies 2004

[Jedi Master Carr]

Nothing has come close yet but it is just a matter of time. So can 2004 get more than 2003? I say its a maybe. Also what will be the first. Right now Along came Polly is off to a good start with a 32 million dollar 4 day opening but if it has bad WOM as it looks it could fall fast. The next chance is Miracle coming out Feburary 6. This stars Kurt Russell and it is about the miracle 1980 U.S. Olympic hockey team. I think it will be big, because everybody that witnessed it will go see it. So I think it has an excellent chance at 100 million. You also have Barbershop 2 that comes out the same day it is a maybe to me. The next film is 50 First Dates staring the always bankable Adam Sandler that will do it but it could be beaten by the other three films first.

Here are my thoughts for the rest of the year (I am only looking at the first half of 2004 it is hard to judge movies up to SM2 coming out the later half)

Guarentees
SpiderMan 2
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban
Troy
Shrek 2

Very likelys
Scooby Doo 2 (hate to admit it there)
Van Helsing
Day After Tomorrow (made by the makers of ID4)
Terminal (Steven Spielberg film)
Starsky and Hutch
Miracle
50 First Dates

Maybes
The Passion
Hidalgo
Dawn of the Dead
Along came Polly
Walking Tall (remake staring the Rock)
Godsend
Stepford Wives
The Chronciles of Riddick
Around the World in 80 Days

very questionable
The Punisher
Kill Bill Volume 2
HellBoy
The Whole Ten Yards
The Alamo

Very unlikely
Garfield
Agent Cody Banks 2

[Figrin D'an]

Do you really think The Passion of Christ has a shot at $100 million domestic? It's not going to open on many screens, and it's a pretty polarized film. I'm not sure it'll make that much unless it goes to a wider release after the initial opening.

[Sanis Prent]

The Passion doesn't have a chance.

That being said, neither does the Alamo.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well regarding the Passion I think it has a chance. Heck even though I don't like what is going on here it does. First it isn't given a limited release it is going wide which surprises me. 2000 theaters on Ash Wed. Also I read about a few churches already buying out shows. I figure that alone will help it. Now it still might not make it and maybe I should put it in the Maybe category because it has some questions. About the Alamo I admit I put that higher it probably belongs in questionable ones right below it. I think I might change them now.

[Marcus Telcontar]

I believe Passion of christ has as much chance at making 100 million as ROTK has of scoring 1 billion WW - ie, a great one. I feel that after watching the trailer, this will be one of the hits of 2004, even despite it's 'negatives' to the average movie goer.

It's not actually that hard or remarkable to make 100 million anymore.

[JMK]

If I had to bet I would say that Passion will fall a little short of $100M, I think it will wind up with around 80M.

[Jedi Master Carr]

That is why I changed and put it in the maybe category I think it will do north of 50 and if it makes100 it will just barely make 100 like 105-120.

[Syo]

what about butterfly effect that opens on friday, that movie looks absolutly amazing


"Does the flap of a butterfly's wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas?"

[Jedi Master Carr]

I forgot about that movie I say its a maybe could go either way.

[Syo]

alsoyou forgot the incredibles the latest pixar creation due out this november which is an easy give me for 100 million

[Figrin D'an]

Yeah... Pixar films seem to be bankable for about $200 million at least

[Jedi Master Carr]

Originally posted by Syo
alsoyou forgot the incredibles the latest pixar creation due out this november which is an easy give me for 100 million

Well I only covered the first half mainly because I was going through the releases and when I got to Spiderman I just got tired and stopped there. but sure it will probably be a guarentee. There are some other films The Village comes to mind that should make 100 million. Also King Arthur is a possibility. After that I don't know.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

I think that "The Passion", since it *is* so polarized, will get people to see it just to see what all the fuss is about. And if it scores big with the Christian community (as I believe it will) then there will be excellent word of mouth and repeat viewings. Just my two cents.

Also I can't wait to see Hidalgo :D

[Jedi Master Carr]

It looks like to me the Passion will pass 100. I think it will do 150 right now but I could be wrong, it could do less. The only film close to 100 at the moment is Along Came Polly that is at 85, that may not do it. 50 Dates will do it in a week or two, after that you are looking at The Passion, Hidalgo, and Starsky and Hutch as the next possible films.

[Madmartigan]

hmmm I always liked these threads, so I thought I would ressurect it

so far this year (and I am using estimates from this weekend)

1. The Passion of the Christ $369,336,919
2. Shrek 2 257,000,000
3. 50 First Dates 119,861,977
4. Van Helsing 110,222,000
5. Troy 109,659,000


for some reason i thought we had more than 5 this year so far but that sounds right

[jjwr]

What I find kind of funny was all the talk above about how Passion might reach 100 Million....might.... :)

[Marcus Telcontar]

Originally posted by Marcus Telcontar
I believe Passion of christ has as much chance at making 100 million as ROTK has of scoring 1 billion WW - ie, a great one. I feel that after watching the trailer, this will be one of the hits of 2004, even despite it's 'negatives' to the average movie goer.

It's not actually that hard or remarkable to make 100 million anymore.

I forgot I said that. Wow..... wish I could pick next week's lotto numbers

[Madmartigan]

a few more made the cut

1. The Passion of the Christ $369,895,388
2. Shrek 2 318,065,000
3. The Day After Tommorow 131,080,000
4. 50 First Dates 120,398,106
5. Troy 119,968,000
6. Van Helsing 114,879,000
7. Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban 102,116,000

[Jedi Master Carr]

Harry Potter should be #3 by Sunday, looks like Shrek 2 will be the #1 movie in the U.S. I am certain Harry Will be #1 WW though.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

Any more on this list? :)

[Dutchy]

1 Shrek 2 DW $431,176,122 4,223 $108,037,878 4,163 5/19 -
2 The Passion of the Christ NM $370,274,604 3,408 $83,848,082 3,043 2/25 -
3 Spider-Man 2 Sony $335,826,901 4,166 $88,156,227 4,152 6/30 -
4 Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban WB $242,921,093 3,855 $93,687,367 3,855 6/04 -
5 The Day After Tomorrow Fox $184,379,733 3,444 $68,743,584 3,425 5/28 -
6 Troy WB $132,830,775 3,411 $46,865,412 3,411 5/14 -
7 50 First Dates Sony $120,870,628 3,612 $39,852,237 3,591 2/13 -
8 Van Helsing Uni. $119,945,820 3,580 $51,748,040 3,575 5/07 -
9 DodgeBall: A True Underdog Story Fox $110,503,968 3,020 $30,070,196 2,694 6/18 -
10 Fahrenheit 9/11 Lions $106,333,609 2,011 $23,920,637 868 6/23 -
11 I, Robot Fox $104,683,846 3,494 $52,179,887 3,420 7/16

[ReaperFett]

1 Shrek 2 DW $441,220,800
2 Spider-Man 2 Sony $373,455,707
3 The Passion of the Christ NM $370,274,604
4 Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban WB $249,475,676
5 The Incredibles BV $232,582,000 6 The Day After Tomorrow Fox $186,740,799
7 The Bourne Supremacy Uni. $176,087,450
8 Shark Tale DW $159,193,801 4
9 I, Robot Fox $144,763,065
10 Troy WB $133,378,256
11 National Treasure BV $124,217,000
12 50 First Dates Sony $120,908,074
13 Van Helsing Uni. $120,177,084
14 Fahrenheit 9/11 Lions $119,194,771
15 DodgeBall: A True Underdog Story Fox $114,326,736
16 The Village BV $114,197,520
17 The Polar Express WB $110,003,000
18 The Grudge Sony $109,446,091
19 Collateral DW $100,999,953

[JMK]

No Alexander yet? ;)